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Tuesday, September 23, 2014

A Strategy to Defeat The Islamic State

By Kimberly Kagan, Frederick W. Kagan, and Jessica D. Lewis

The Islamic State poses a grave danger to the United States and its allies in the Middle East and around the world. Reports that it is not currently planning an attack against the American homeland are little comfort. Its location, the resources it controls, the skill and determination of its leaders and fighters, and its demonstrated lethality distinguish it from other al-Qaeda-like groups. Its ability to offer safe-haven and support to terrorists planning attacks against us is beyond any terrorist threat we have ever seen. The thousands of American and European citizens who are fighting alongside the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra in Iraq and Syria constitute an unprecedented threat to our security regardless of whether those groups intend to attack us. The Islamic State is a clear and present danger to the security of the United States. It must be defeated.

Developing a strategy to accomplish that goal is daunting. The situation today is so bad and the momentum is so much in the wrong direction that it is impossible to articulate a direct path to an acceptable endstate in Iraq and Syria. American neglect of the deteriorating situations in both countries has deprived us of the understanding and even basic ground intelligence needed to build a strategy. We must therefore pursue an iterative approach that tests basic assumptions, develops our understanding, builds partnerships with willing parties on the ground, especially the Sunni Arabs in Iraq who will be essential to set conditions for more decisive operations to follow.

The core challenge facing the U.S. in Iraq and Syria is the problem of enabling the Sunni Arab community stretching from Baghdad to Damascus and Turkey to Jordan to defeat al-Qaeda affiliates and splinters, while these extreme groups deliberately concentrate in Sunni majority areas. Persuading those communities to rejoin reformed states in Iraq and Syria after long seasons of internal strife will be daunting. But their participation in state security solutions will be essential to keep al-Qaeda from returning. Many of these populations, especially Syrians, may be losing confidence in such a post-war vision.

The problem in Syria is relatively easy to state, but extremely difficult to solve. The Assad regime has lost control of the majority of the territory of the Syrian state. It has violated international law on many occasions and lost its legitimacy as a member of the international community. Assad himself is the icon of atrocities, regime brutality, and sectarianism to Sunni populations in Syria and throughout the region.  His actions have fueled the rise of violent Islamists, particularly ISIS and JN. U.S. strategy must ensure that none of these three actors control all or part of Syria while supporting the development of an alternative, inclusive Syrian state over time.

Iraq Situation Report: September 20-22, 2014

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) continues its campaign to solidify its control in Anbar. 

ISIS Sanctuary Map: September 10, 2014

ISW has updated its ISIS Sanctuary map in advance of President Obama’s speech on a strategy to confront ISIS.  This map, covering both Iraq and Syria, shows the extent of ISIS zones of control, attack, and support throughout both countries. 

ISIS......................................PURE Evil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This Is About As Good As Things Are Going To Get For The Middle Class – And It’s Not That Good
By Michael Snyder

The U.S. economy has had six full years to bounce back since the financial collapse of 2008, and it simply has not happened.  Median household income has declined substantially since then, total household wealth for middle class families is way down, the percentage of the population that is employed is still about where it was at the end of the last recession, and the number of Americans that are dependent on the government has absolutely exploded.  Even those that claim that the economy is "recovering" admit that we are not even close to where we used to be economically.  Many hope that someday we will eventually get back to that level, but the truth is that this is about as good as things are ever going to get for the middle class.  And we should enjoy this period of relative stability while we still can, because when the next great financial crisis strikes things are going to fall apart very rapidly.

The U.S. Census Bureau has just released some brand new numbers, and they are quite sobering.  For example, after accounting for inflation median household income in the United States has declined a total of 8 percent from where it was back in 2007.

That means that middle class families have significantly less purchasing power than they did just prior to the last major financial crisis.

And one research firm is projecting that it is going to take until 2019 for median household income to return to the level that we witnessed in 2007...This Is About As Good As Things Are Going To Get For The Middle Class – And It’s Not That Good
By Michael Snyder

The U.S. economy has had six full years to bounce back since the financial collapse of 2008, and it simply has not happened.  Median household income has declined substantially since then, total household wealth for middle class families is way down, the percentage of the population that is employed is still about where it was at the end of the last recession, and the number of Americans that are dependent on the government has absolutely exploded.  Even those that claim that the economy is "recovering" admit that we are not even close to where we used to be economically.  Many hope that someday we will eventually get back to that level, but the truth is that this is about as good as things are ever going to get for the middle class.  And we should enjoy this period of relative stability while we still can, because when the next great financial crisis strikes things are going to fall apart very rapidly.

The U.S. Census Bureau has just released some brand new numbers, and they are quite sobering.  For example, after accounting for inflation median household income in the United States has declined a total of 8 percent from where it was back in 2007.

That means that middle class families have significantly less purchasing power than they did just prior to the last major financial crisis.

And one research firm is projecting that it is going to take until 2019 for median household income to return to the level that we witnessed in 2007...

The American MIDDLE Class

Obama's America!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Russian Recession......................................... Dead Ahead!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Russian Industrial Giant Facing Bankruptcy?
By Dimitra DeFotis

One of Russia’s commodity producers could get crushed under the weight of its debt.

U.S.-traded shares in the producer of coal, iron ore and steel, Mechel (MTL), fell 30%. The Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)  fell 1.83% today. The  iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (ERUS) fell 1.64%. The Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X Shares (RUSS) rose 5.7%, while the Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X Shares (RUSL) fell 5.65%.

Shares of OAO Mechel (MTLR.Russia) collapsed Monday after Russia’s economy minister said bankruptcy was “a probable scenario” versus restructuring. Mechel opposed a proposal from its three largest lenders, VTB, Sberbank and Gazprombank, to convert $3 billion of debt for 75% in Mechel’s equity. The result would reduce the stake of Russian oligarch Igor Zyuzin to 10% from 67%, according to a Reuters story on Mechel’s bankruptcy potential.

According to Mechel’s English-language website, Zyuzin controls 54% of Mechel’s common shares.

Gazprombank is among the Russian enterprises facing U.S. and European sanctions following Russia’s military incursion in Ukraine.

Emerging Markets....................................2015 "IS" going to be a REAL Bitch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Israel shoots down Syrian jet after ‘accidental’ flyover

A Syrian fighter jet in flames after it was hit by the Israeli military over the Golan He

ISRAEL will respond “forcefully” to attempts to threaten its security, Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon warned yesterday, after it shot down a Syrian warplane over the Golan Heights.

“IDF (Israel Defence Forces) fighters managing the air defence systems brought down a Syrian fighter plane which approached Israel’s sovereign territory on the Golan in a threatening manner, and even crossed the frontier,” Mr Yaalon said.

Israel seized 1200 square kilometres of the Golan from Syria during the Six-Day War of 1967, then annexed it in 1981 in a move never recognised by the international community.

“We will not allow anyone, whether it is a state actor or a terror organisation, to threaten our security and breach our sovereignty,” Mr Yaalon said. “We will respond forcefully against any such attempt, whether it is an error or intentional.”

His statement was echoed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Our air defences are designed to prevent any penetration to our airspace by enemy fighter jets ... We don’t think it was a deliberate assault but our defences go into action immediately,” Mr Netanyahu told the ABC’s 7.30 last night.

Israel Shoots Down Syrian Warplane After Flight Over Golan
By Calev Ben-David and Gwen Ackerman

Israel shot down a Syrian fighter jet after it flew over the Golan Heights, the Israeli army said today, the first such incident in almost 30 years and the neighbors’ most serious clash since the start of Syria’s civil war.

The Sukhoi fighter was downed by a U.S.-made Patriot missile fired by Israeli military personnel, and the crew ejected over Syrian territory across the Golan frontier, the Israeli army said. The attack came as the U.S. launched its first airstrikes against Islamic State positions in Syria in a major expansion of its campaign to defeat the militants.

“We will not allow any party whatsoever, whether it be a nation or terrorist organization, to threaten our security and violate our sovereignty,” Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said in an e-mailed statement.

The HELL that "IS" Syria WILL Trigger the MOTHER of ALL WARS in the Middle East!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Israel Syria.........................I Called this TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Ready for Rate Riot? Emerging Markets Set to Follow Fed
By Simon Kennedy

Investors bracing for higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve in 2015 need to expand their horizons or risk being caught off-guard.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists suggest 12 of the 16 inflation-targeting emerging-market central banks they monitor will raise rates in the next year, and many will do so by more than markets anticipate. Mexico, Thailand, Hungary, and Israel are among the most likely to surprise, economists Marcos Buscaglia and Ana Madeira said in a Sept. 12 report to clients.

Following the Fed, even at the risk of crimping growth, would represent an effort to prevent a spike of inflation and keep attracting foreign cash.

Emerging Markets 

BRICs.................................2015 "IS" going to be a REAL BITCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Chinese Exporters.......................Be VERY Afraid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

YOU Socialists in FRANCE REALLY Need to Growth the FUCK UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Your Country "IS" Broke and You have Only YOURSELVES and The ASSHOLES You Elect for the HELL that Coming at YOU in 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

French Farmers Set Tax Office On Fire – Demise of Europe


French vegetable farmer have set a tax office and a building on fire destroying the government facility which was the symbol of the increasing administrative burden and sanctions that is killing farming. Hundreds of tractors and trailers of the farmers converged on Friday evening before the building of the Agricultural Social Insurance (MSA) in the town of Morlaix (Brittany). There they dumped unsold potatoes and artichokes before the MSA-building and added pallets and tires setting the entire lot on fire. Thereafter, the farmers moved on to the tax office set that on fire as well. The protests also took place in numerous other places as well, however, only these two government buildings were totally destroyed.

The association of vegetable farmers had announced the protest action on Friday. The background is that for years the bureaucracy for farmers have magnified the economic decline and their plight with constant new regulation of everything. The economic situation of farming in Europe has been seriously pushed too far with the US sanctions against Russia. The agricultural crisis caused by Obama is increasingly deteriorating with far too many farmers throughout Europe losing everything.

Exclusive - Ukraine crisis risks recession for Europe: El-Erian
By Jennifer Ablan and Dan Burns

(Reuters) - Mohamed El-Erian, the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE (ALVG.DE), warned that global markets do not fully appreciate the risk posed by the Ukrainian crisis, a conflict which could push Europe into recession.

He saw few options to de-escalate tensions between Ukraine, its Western supporters and Russia, which has been accused of backing an insurgency led by ethnic Russian separatists.

In an interview at Reuters' New York headquarters on Monday, in which he also spoke about his controversial departure from Pimco earlier this year, El-Erian said just "one or at most two" more rounds of sanctions and counter sanctions between Russia and the West would likely push Europe into recession. That's especially true if Russia cuts energy supplies during the coming winter heating season.

"I think markets are underestimating Ukraine," El-Erian said. "It is very hard to find a solution that reconciles the three parties involved – Ukraine, the West and Russia." 

MAN SE Cuts Hours for 4,000 Workers on Europe Demand Drop
By Dorothee Tschampa

MAN SE (MAN) is scaling back truck production by cutting hours for as many 4,000 workers as European commercial-vehicle producers grapple with slumping demand in key markets.

The third-biggest truckmaker in Europe will reduce manufacturing at plants in Germany and Austria starting next month as industrywide deliveries in the region may drop as much as 15 percent in 2014, Anders Nielsen, head of MAN’s commercial-vehicle unit, said at a press conference in Hanover, Germany. MAN also faces a “difficult” environment in Brazil, he said.

Freight haulers and construction companies are slowing their pace of investment as economic growth decelerates in some regions. Demand in Russia has been hurt by the government’s dispute with Ukraine, and weakening gains in China’s gross domestic product have had a knock-on effect in Brazil. The European Central Bank is undertaking monetary stimulus measures to kick-start growth in countries using the euro. 

Euro zone business growth slows in September as prices keep sliding: PMI
By Jonathan Cable

(Reuters) - Euro zone business activity has expanded at a slightly weaker pace than expected in September as firms cut prices for the 30th month in a row, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The data will dishearten the European Central Bank, which is struggling to spur growth and revive inflation rooted way below its target.

Markit's Composite Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, based on surveys of thousands of companies across the region and seen as a good indicator of growth, dipped to a nine-month low of 52.3, shy of expectations in a Reuters poll for no change from August's 52.5.

The index has been above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction since July 2013 although Markit said the latest survey pointed to third-quarter economic growth of just 0.3 percent.

ECB’s Headache Now a Migraine after PMIs
By: Dean Popplewell

Risk trading strategies found temporary relief overnight before the European session opened from the world's second-largest economy. Better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data has reversed some of yesterday's market negativity that followed the weekend comments made by China's Finance Minister Lou Jiwei who said his country would not amend its economic policies, despite the emergence of soft economic indicators lately. This morning's reprieve was kickstarted by China's HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI). It's the first gauge of activity in September, and the reading ensured China’s economy avoids falling into contraction, while overturning yesterday's bearish sentiment that was on display closing out the U.S. markets.

Despite China's flash PMI being marginally better (50.5 versus 50), the devil remains in the details. Among the notable components, new orders and export orders both increased at a healthy clip, but the employment component has decreased at an accelerated rate. However, the market remains wary of China's property downturn, believing it remains the country's biggest downside risk to growth. Despite giving risk a jumpstart, many believe that China needs to implement broad stimulus measures to support its economic activity. Hopes for a better-than-expected PMI reading would spurred material market relief that looked a tad too optimistic, now that diverging European PMIs have followed it. 

Germany not to blame for France's economy problems : German industry chief

BERLIN: Germany is not responsible for France's economic problems and is not duty-bound to solve them either, the head of Germany's main industry lobby said on Tuesday.

Europe's largest economy is under pressure from the likes of France and Italy to loosen the fiscal reins and use government coffers to boost investment. But Finance Minister Schaeuble has stuck to his line that reform is the best way to foster growth.

"Germany is not to blame for the French economy's structural problems," Ulrich Grillo, the head of the BDI association, told a conference in Berlin attended by Chancellor Angela Merkel. "It's also not Germany's responsibility to solve these problems."

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, who was due to address the same event, sought on Monday to convince Germany that Paris is serious about making its economy more competitive, declaring that France "is not the sick child of Europe".

Valls has said he wants to reduce public spending by 50 billion euros in the next three years and give business tax cuts worth more than 40 billion euros.

Grillo praised these reform announcements but said they needed to be implemented: "The right deeds have to follow the right words."

UKRAINE............................SEE It IS going to get MUCH Worse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

FRANCE............................EMU's Next ""PIIGS""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EUROPE...............................Totally SCREWED for the REST of this DECADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

FIRST Comes the ""GROWTH Recession"" THEN the MOTHER of ALL ""GLOBAL RECESSIONS""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Monday, September 22, 2014

Obama "IS" Now Bombing Targets in Syria!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

If Obama Hits Assad's Military PUTIN Will have a Response!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Obama thrusts U.S. Military directly into Syria's Civil War!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Obama faces hurdles at U.N. Security Council meeting
By Kathleen Hennessey and Christi Parsons

When he heads to the United Nations this week, President Obama will try to rally the world around military operations against Sunni extremists in Iraq, without invoking his predecessor's similar effort, which failed before the global body 11 years ago.

The setting inevitably recalls President George W. Bush's months-long push to win U.N. backing for U.S. threats to use force against then-Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. That effort was captured in most Americans' memories by then-Secretary of State Colin Powell's famously flawed presentation purportedly showing evidence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

Not surprisingly, Obama administration officials are not expected to bring charts or satellite images to make the case against Islamic State militants. Nor will Obama seek U.N. Security Council authorization for use of force, mindful he would almost surely not get it. Instead, he will arrive at the U.N. after expanding the U.S. bombing campaign into Syria late Monday, according to the Pentagon.

White House officials have been quick to point out the major differences between the two Iraq operations and the campaigns to garner public support for them.

"The president is not contemplating committing 140,000 U.S. military personnel to go on the ground in Iraq," White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Monday. "He does not contemplate columns of tanks rolling across the desert."

Though the scale and tactics differ, observers still see shades of the Bush experience in Obama's challenges this week, as well as in the arguments the president will probably use to sway allies.

U.S. officials say Obama hopes to use the U.N. gathering to showcase international support for the mission. Obama will chair a meeting of the Security Council on Wednesday for only the second time and will push the group to adopt a resolution calling for a global crackdown on so-called foreign fighters, who leave their homes to join extremist groups like the one laying siege to large portions of Iraq and Syria.

U.S. begins airstrikes against Islamic State in Syria
By Craig Whitlock

The U.S. military expanded its war against the Islamic State late Monday by sending waves of warplanes and launching Tomahawk missiles into Syria to attack an array of targets in an aggressive and risk-laden operation that marks a new phase in the conflict.

Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said late Monday that U.S. commanders had deployed a mix of fighter jets and bombers and had also launched ship-based Tomahawk missiles against Islamic State targets in Syria. He said the operations were ongoing and that more details would not be released until after the strikes were finished.

Kirby said in a statement that “partner nation forces” were also involved in the attacks but did not identify which other countries participated. 

""Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin, whose country backs Assad, told the U.N. Security Council on Friday that any attacks inside Syria without Assad’s approval would be “considered illegal” under international law.""

Pentagon says U.S. and partners begin airstrikes in Syria
Bloomberg, AP

WASHINGTON – The Pentagon said Monday that the United States and its partners have begun conducting airstrikes in Syria, a major expansion of President Barack Obama’s effort to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the terrorist Islamic State group.

“U.S. military and partner nation forces are undertaking military action against ISIL terrorists in Syria using a mix of fighter, bomber and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles,” Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said Monday evening in an emailed statement. ISIL is an acronym for the group’s former name.

The U.S. is seeking to reverse the advances of Islamic State group, a Sunni extremist group that has seized a swath of territory across Iraq and Syria. The U.S. has conducted more than 190 airstrikes against Islamic State targets, all of them in Iraq until now. 

#BREAKING The United States has begun bombing inside Syria, [Full Details] 

U.S. Conducts First Airstrikes in Syria Against Islamic State
By Tony Capaccio

The Long War

The U.S. conducted its first airstrikes in Syria, a major expansion of President Barack Obama’s effort to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the terrorist Islamic State.

“U.S. military and partner nation forces are undertaking military action against ISIL terrorists in Syria using a mix of fighter, bomber and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles,” Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said tonight in an e-mailed statement.

The U.S. is seeking to reverse the advances of Islamic State, a Sunni extremist group that has seized a swath of territory across Iraq and Syria. The U.S. has conducted more than 190 airstrikes against Islamic State targets, all of them in Iraq until now. ISIL is an acronym for the group’s former name. 

US and partner nations launch airstrikes in Syria

The United States military and its partner nations have begun launching airstrikes inside Syria, according to the Pentagon. The operation is targeting fighters from the militant group "Islamic State."

F/A-18 Super Hornet US-Kampfjet USA Irak Islamischer Staat Symbolbild Angriff

Airstrikes involving a mix of fighters, bombers and Tomahawk missiles began on Tuesday, the Pentagon said.

"I can confirm that US military and partner nation forces are undertaking military action against ISIL (Islamic State group) terrorists in Syria using a mix of fighter, bomber and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles," spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby said in a statement.
America, You Best NOT Doubt ME on this Note, There Ain't a Snowball's CHANCE in HELL for Obama's BULLSHIT Plan in Iraq to WORK when the Iraqi Military "IS" Losing ""Battalions"" to ISIS along With Bases FULL of the Supplies needed to WAGE WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Islamic State attack on Iraqi base leaves hundreds missing, shows army weaknesses
By Loveday Morris

BAGHDAD — The army base in Iraq’s western Anbar province had been under siege by Islamic State militants for a week, so when a convoy of armored Humvees rolled up at the gate, the Iraqi soldiers at Camp Saqlawiyah believed saviors had arrived.

But this was no rescue attempt. The vehicles were driven by militants on suicide missions, and within seconds on Sunday the base had become a bloody scene of multiple bombings.

On Monday, a day after the attack, five survivors — including three officers — said that between 300 and 500 soldiers were missing and believed to be dead, kidnapped or in hiding. Army officials said the numbers were far lower, leading to accusations that they were concealing the true toll.

If the survivors’ accounts are correct, it would make Sunday the most disastrous day for the Iraqi army since several divisions collapsed in the wake of the Islamic State’s capture of the northern city of Mosul amid its cross-country sweep in June. In any case, the chaotic incident has highlighted shortcomings in an army that the United States has spent billions of dollars training and equipping, and it has further undermined the force’s reliability as a partner as President Obama expands airstrikes into provinces including Anbar.

It has also heightened pressure on new Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, whose opponents have already seized on the incident to accuse him of a soft-handed approach to terrorists.

IRAQ.......................................AGAIN All thanks to Obama and HIS Fools HE Appointed to HIS National Security Council!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
To YOU Folks that FALL in the Demographics of the Millennials........................Your BIGGEST Problem Facing you today IS...................""BIG Government"" that Your Parents help Build!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Until America finds the BALLS to make Institutional Reforms of Washington and MAKE a Generational SHIFT to the ***Relationship*** between ""We the People"" and the Political Class who have Forgotten who they Work FOR, Your LIVES and YOUR ***Standard of Living*** WILL never be what Your Parents have Enjoyed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

""BIG Government"" Ain't YOUR Friend and it Doesn't take Hillary's Fricking ""VILLAGE"" to access what Historically has been what the American Experience IS ALL About..................................""*****Exceptionalism of the Individual*****""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

Millennials Aren’t Getting Jobs and Aren’t Buying Houses
By Veronique de Rugy

Young people have never done well during recessions. But this particularly severe recession, with a recovery that’s been slower than usual (and than necessary, I might add) is taking an even bigger toll on the lives of younger Americans. A look at the data shows that the labor market has been a pretty harsh place for Millennials. According to BLS, the unemployment rate for Americans under 25 is 12.2 percent, more than twice the rate for 25-to-54-year-olds. They are also over represented in among the long-term unemployed, the ranks of which include 400,000 young people who have never worked in their lives, but have wanted to work for more than 26 weeks in a row.

Joblessness is costly, especially for young adults who have invested time and resources in career-specific knowledge and skills. Studies consistently show that the longer people are unemployed, the less likely they are to find new work. They may lose their job skills over time, have less connections with informal professional networks, or face suspicions from employers about why they were unemployed for so long.

4 Obstacles That Keep Millennials From Buying Their First Homes
By Motley Fool

Some might say that the real estate market is in limbo.

Though it's recovering from the disastrous crash around 2007 and in the following years, the market isn't yet fully stable. It stops and starts. Even with mortgage rates at an all-time low to entice buyers, the market is still lethargic. While we all know that real estate is hyper-local and different parts of the country are recovering at different paces, the question about investors vs. homebuyers still lingers over most markets.

In the past, the real estate market has been able to find new life from first-time homebuyers, but that doesn't seem to be the case in 2014. Even with mortgage rates in a good place for buyers, a lack of lending programs and the difficulty of loan approval for first-time homebuyers makes things difficult. Add to that the varying appraisal rules and arbitrary application of how properties are appraised, and it leads to a tough first-time buying environment. The buyers have trouble getting loans, and those who do can find a hard time getting the property they are buying to appraise.

First-time buyers are in a tough spot, and yet they're also the key to the recovery of the real estate market.  They have the ability to make a massive impact on the market -- but most people with the potential to become first-time homeowners aren't taking the leap.

For the market, that's a distinct problem. While we as real estate investors enjoy our returns from renting and providing an alternative to home ownership, we're not hurting in most cases to find tenants. My company's most recent data found that houses in Memphis were renting on average in 37 days and well above market rent data. In Dallas, vacant properties are renting in just over 18 days, and it is almost impossible to know market rent because the rates are going up so quickly -- and the same goes for Houston. On average, rental homes are moving very quickly and the demand for quality rentals is growing. 

Millennials  the Most SCREWED Generation in American History!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Damn, and it ain't even Snowing YET in Ukraine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ukraine Is On The Brink Of Total Economic Collapse
By Walter Kurtz, Sober Look

While we see a great deal of media coverage of Ukraine-related geopolitical risks, there hasn't been sufficient discussion about the dire economic and fiscal conditions the nation is facing. Writing about men in masks fighting in eastern Ukraine sells far more advertising than covering the nation's economic activity. However it's the economy, not the Russian army that has brought Ukraine close to the brink. And just to be clear, some of Kiev's economic and fiscal problems were visible long before the spat with Russia (see post from 2012).

Ukraine is now in recession. Deep economic ties with Russia have resulted in painful adjustments in recent months. The nation's exports are down some 19% from last year in dollar terms and expected to fall further. A great example of Ukraine's export challenges is the Antonov aircraft company known for its Soviet era large transport planes as well as other types of aircraft. 


The Winter in Ukraine this YEAR "IS" going to be a REAL Bitch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ukraine Introduces Capital Controls


A few days ago we showed how when Obama said there would be "costs" for Moscow in the Ukraine-Russian conflict, he got the recipient country of said costs woefully wrong, as confirmed by the economic data released by Ukraine which showed its Industrial Production crater at a pace on par with the Lehman collapse, confirming the Ukraine economy was on the verge of a spectacular implosion just in time for the harsh, Gazprom-free winter to finish off what little economic activity is left. 


Central Bank forbids companies completing FX payments on import contracts if they don’t actually bring goods into Ukraine, Unian reports, citing Central Bank decree that comes into effect tomorrow.
  • FX payments on imports also prohibited if customs registration of goods takes more than 180 days
  • Foreign investors forbidden to receive investment return from selling Ukraine securities beyond stock exchange, except govt bonds
  • Foreign investors forbidden to receive dividend return on Ukrainian shares not traded in stock exchanges
  • Central bank also forbids FX transactions using individual FX licenses, except placing money by cos. on accounts in foreign banks 

UKRAINE....................................SEE, It "IS" going to get MUCH Worse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
""*****Japanese RECESSION*****"" Dead Ahead and Folks..........................The Central Banksters HAVE NO Plan B for this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Barclays: Falling Yen Unlikely To Help Exporters
By Shuli Ren

A popular conception with Japanese equities is that falling yen may help exporters. Recent market data seems to give this notion credence. In September, the U.S. dollar has gained 4.9% against the yen, while export-oriented automobile manufacturers Toyota Motor (TM) and Honda Motor (HMC) gained 9.5% and 7.4% in Tokyo respectively, outperforming Nikkei 225‘s 5.1% gain.

Unfortunately, a weaker yen may not help the exporters very much, wrote analyst Kyohei Morita and team in a report published today.

First of all, Japanese companies tend to keep the price tag of their exports largely unchanged on a “contract-currency basis”, so an appreciating – or depreciating yen – won’t impact their sales, suggesting “those prices have been determined primarily by the global marketplace independent of exchange rates – at least in aggregate,” wrote the analysts. 

All systems go for second stage of tax hike: Tanigaki
By Mizuho Aoki

Liberal Democratic Party Secretary-General Sadakazu Tanigaki said Friday the second stage of the consumption tax rate hike should proceed as planned next year, but said the ruling party is closely monitoring the economic situation.

“The railroad (toward the hike) is already there. So what we should do now is work to create the economic climate smoothly,” Tanigaki told journalists in Tokyo.

The government plans to double the sales tax to 10 percent in October 2015 to follow up on the first stage of the hike to 8 percent from 5 percent this past April.

“I’m not saying that we must raise the consumption tax at any cost,” he said. “We must watch the economic situation closely and, if necessary, implement a range of measures.”

Weak Yen Puts Japan at Risk, Says Ex-BOJ Deputy Iwata
By Toru Fujioka, Chikako Mogi and Masahiro Hidaka

Japan is in danger of falling into a recession as the yen’s decline reduces the purchasing power of households and squeezes corporate profits, said a former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan.

“The current yen weakness is slightly excessive,” Kazumasa Iwata, the deputy from 2003-2008, said in an interview on Sept. 19 in Tokyo. “Abenomics entails the risk of ‘beggar thyself’ consequences and signs are already emerging.”

The yen is trading near a six-year low against the dollar as diverging monetary policies from the U.S. to Japan threaten to increase exchange-rate volatility. Rising import costs are straining the economy as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe weighs whether Japan can take another sales tax increase to rein in the world’s biggest debt burden.

“Currency levels appropriate for reflecting Japan’s economic fundamentals are 90-100 yen to the dollar,” said Iwata, the president of the Japan Center of Economic Research.

The yen traded at 108.80 per dollar as of 1:51 p.m. in Tokyo after touching 109.46 on Sept. 19, the weakest since August 2008, according Bloomberg data. It’s depreciated by 4.5 percent over the past month, the most among the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Albert Edwards Presents "The Most Important Chart For Investors"

Which incidentally has nothing to do with stocks or bonds, and everything to do with all-important FX (which just happens to drive all correlation and risk pairs around the globe thanks to the far greater embedded leverage in FX, and is why all "modern" traders focus almost entirely on the USDJPY and EURUSD).

SocGen’s Albert Edwards says you should worry about this dollar chart


Albert Edwards, Societe Generale’s uber-bear, says investors should center all their worries in one place right now, and that is the dollar USDJPY -0.20% , which is up about 5% against the yen so far this month.

China has caused plenty of jitters lately with a string of lousy data, made worse by weekend comments from Finance Minister Lou Jiwei that a single economic indicator wasn’t enough reason for a change in the country’s fiscal direction. HSBC’s preliminary purchasing manager index for August is due after the close of markets and investors are very nervous about what it could reveal.

So now, just as Chinese data is looking down in the mouth, the yen has dropped below a 15-year support level versus the dollar, Edwards points out.  Enter the “most important chart” investors should be focusing on right now. “The next phase of the global currency wars may have begun,” he writes ominously. Here’s that chart:


OECD says BOJ inflation goal hard to meet, needs news commitment


The Bank of Japan must make a new commitment to meet its 2 percent inflation target because achieving that goal by around next spring will be difficult, a senior official at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Monday.

OECD acting chief economist Rintaro Tamaki, speaking at a news conference, urged the Japanese government to proceed with a second sales tax increase next year as planned to help fix its tattered public finances.


Japan Economy Shrinking on Stimulus, USA Next

Japan went a major money printing festival,much like the Fed, but this much smaller economy is already seeing the pitfalls of printing money.

With Yelleen and the US Fed continuing their loose monetary policy this become a blueprint for America over the next few years.

The US economy will pay the price for the Fed’s errors.

Japan’s economy shrank more than estimated in April-June, revised data showed Monday, piling pressure on the government to delay another sales tax hike, while the central bank faces calls to expand its stimulus.

The figures will come as a blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as his programme aimed at rejuvenating growth struggles to gain traction.

Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) shrivelled 1.8 percent from the previous three months, worse than the previously estimated fall of 1.7 percent, the Cabinet Office said.

The latest statistics confirmed the world’s third largest economy had suffered its steepest quarterly drop since the 2011 quake and tsunami disaster.

Kyle Bass Japan.............................Abenomics "IS" going to FAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Time to worry? Russell 2000 hits 'death cross'
By Robert Hum

The Russell 2000 has been diverging from the broader market over the last several weeks, and now technicians point out it has flashed a bearish signal. For the first time in more than two years, the small-cap index has hit a so-called death cross.

A death cross occurs when a nearer-term 50-day moving average falls below a longer-term, 200-day moving average. Technicians argue that a death cross can be a bearish sign. 


Death Cross 


Just another INDICATOR that this BULLSHIT ""PONZI"" Scheme of the Central Banksters IS coming to an END!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 


Billionaires are hoarding piles of cash
By Robert Frank   


Billionaires are holding mountains of cash, offering the latest sign that the ultra-wealthy are nervous about putting more money into today's markets.

According to the new Billionaire Census from Wealth-X and UBS, the world's billionaires are holding an average of $600 million in cash each—greater than the gross domestic product of Dominica. That marks a jump of $60 million from a year ago and translates into billionaires' holding an average of 19 percent of their net worth in cash.

"This increased liquidity signals that many billionaires are keeping their money on the sidelines and waiting for the optimal moment to make further investments," the study said. 


Peter Thiel "Fixes" America's Anti-Business Policies In 6 Words


With retail store closures running at their fastest pace since Lehman, and business closure rates higher than start-up rates for the first time in US history, billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel has some short-and-sweet advice on how to fix the apparent anti-business sentiment in America: "Get Government Out Of The Way."


Billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel has some short-and-sweet advice on how to fix the apparent anti-business sentiment in America... 

Retail Store Closures Soar In 2014: At Highest Pace Since Lehman Collapse

What a better way to celebrate the rigged markets that are telegraphing a "durable" recovery, than with a Credit Suisse report showing, beyond a reasonable doubt, that when it comes to traditional bricks and mortar retailers, who have now closed more stores, or over 2,400 units, so far in 2014 and well double the total amount of storefront closures in 2013, this year has been the worst year for conventional discretionary spending since the start of the great financial crisis!

From Credit Suisse's Michael Exstein

BofAML Repeats Art Cashin's Concerns Of A September Seasonal Slump


Having cautioned investors this morning of the historical tendency for market reversals on September 22nd after hitting all-time highs, UBS' Art Cashin's warning has been echoed by BofAML's Macneil Curry who notes risk assets are set to correct as negative seasonals dominate the S&P500 this week. This is bullish for Treasuries, Curry adds.

As BofAML notes, 

First Comes the ""GROWTH Recession"" thanks to ""BIG Government"" THEN the MOTHER of ALL ""GLOBAL RECESSIONS""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be FRICKING BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

China Coal Peak Imminent Makes Coal Risky Investment: Study
By Stefan Nicola

Chinese demand for coal may peak as soon as this year, hurting a world market already suffering from oversupply and low profits, the Carbon Tracker Initiative said.

Investments in coal assets may be hit by falling costs for renewable energies and tighter regulation to combat global warming, said the group, which promotes the idea that the world can’t burn all the fossil fuels it’s investing in while meeting its climate goals.

“There are a host of signals that Chinese demand for coal is close to peaking which will cause a seismic shift in the market,” Anthony Hobley, chief executive officer, wrote in a report released today. “This is potentially a risky business for investors.”

The report comes as China, both the largest market for coal and the worst carbon-dioxide emitter, is seeking to cut output at the nation’s 14 largest producers after prices slumped amid efforts to moderate economic growth and fight pollution. China seeks to decouple CO2 emissions from growth and is studying when emissions may peak, Xie Zhenhua, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said Sept. 19.

China's Economy Slams On The Brakes: 30% Of Coal Miners Unable To Pay Employees On Time


The thing about any debt-funded Ponzi scheme is that it is like a great white: it has to keep moving, or else it dies. The problem with China is that for the past decade, in order to fund the most rapid period of industrialization and modernization in history, it has been moving at an absolutely torrid pace.  And by moving we mean creating credit, which always takes us back to our favorite chart comparing the US and Chinese financial systems, that of total bank assets in the two countries. Spot which one is poised for a horrendous crash the second credit creation slows down from the breakneck pace of $3.5 trillion in inside money creation per year... 

China’s Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth
By Yukon Huang, Canyon Bosler

Much of the media coverage of China’s economy suggests that the country is headed for a financial crisis. China’s mountain of debt is decried, local government finances are labeled menacing, and a property bubble is called disastrous. But this picture is misleading. While China has serious debt problems, with prudent macroeconomic policies and productivity-enhancing structural reforms, the challenges should be manageable if underlying fiscal issues and growth-related reforms are addressed.

China’s level of debt has grown rapidly since 2009, but this credit boom fundamentally differs from others. The debt surge is the result of a deliberate state-driven stimulus program to stave off economic collapse in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. It has not been accompanied by the usual external imbalances, fiscal deficits, or overleveraged housing market that triggered financial crises in other countries.

While corporate debt has skyrocketed, there is no evidence of widespread distress: risks remain concentrated in particular sectors with excess capacity and large state-owned enterprises. These pockets of distress will see mounting losses, but rising default rates appear to be anticipated and incorporated in the prices of the relevant stocks and bonds.
The Chinese government’s balance sheet remains relatively healthy compared to that of its peer countries. The central government has the resources to rescue systemically important firms and banks, limiting the potential damage from mounting financial stress in the corporate sector. But those resources will not last indefinitely.
Shadow banking in China is diverse and many forms generate marginal risks or are too disconnected from the banking system to threaten financial stability. The truly risky types of shadow banking account for a relatively small share of financial assets, and their impact on the formal banking system is being scaled back.
A property market correction is beginning and will act as a drag on short-term growth, which could fall as low as 6 percent over the next two years. However, while the property correction will affect construction-related activity and production indicators, it will not have a seriously debilitating impact on the financial position of households or the banking system.
Altogether, credit losses from the current economic stresses are unlikely to exceed 20 percent of GDP. Dealing with these losses will be costly and complex, but, after a period of consolidation, the country should be able to maintain relatively robust economic growth in spite of the financial upheaval.
Still, reforms are needed to ensure China’s long-term financial stability and reestablish rapid but more sustainable growth. Many of the key actions lie in strengthening the fiscal system since the country’s debt problems are merely symptoms of underlying weaknesses in the way that resources are being raised and allocated. China’s leaders demonstrated that they realize change is needed in November 2013 at the Third Plenum meeting, when they laid out a comprehensive plan for reforming the economy. 

China Coal Trusts 

China HARD Landing.........................Has BEGUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ISIS war rollout resembles launch of Obamacare site
By David Gergen, CNN Senior Political Analyst

(CNN) -- Someone in the Obama White House clearly has a good book to write one day: "How Not to Do Rollouts."

With one hapless episode after another, the rollout of the President's plan to destroy ISIS is beginning to rival the less-than-splendid debut of the Obamacare website.

President Barack Obama's critics may take some glee from the recent missteps, but they shouldn't. Going to war is serious business, especially when the conflict promises to be long and messy.

For the nation's sake, our dysfunctional politics needs to become functional on this one or we put too much at risk, starting with the lives of our men and women in uniform.

That's why it is imperative and urgent that the Obama team and their allies take a deep breath, pull themselves together and get this war effort on solid footing. Instead of becoming defensive, they need to go on offense, showing the world they are firmly in charge and on a winning path.

Senate passes measure to arm, equip Syrian rebels

'Special Report' All-Star panel 'throwback' edition 

General says Obama's ISIS strategy doesn't have 'snowball’s chance' of working
By Joe Newby

According to retired Marine General James Conway, President Obama’s strategy to defeat ISIS won't work, the Daily Caller reported Friday. Conway, James Weinstein said, served as the 34th Commandant of the Marine Corps at the end of the Bush administration.

“I don’t think the president’s plan has a snowball’s chance in hell of succeeding,” he said. Citing an unnamed source, Weinstein said the retired Marine general made the comment at the Maverick PAC Conference in Washington, D.C. on Friday.

Gen. Conway clearly has the expertise to know what he is talking about. Unlike Obama, who has never served a day in uniform, Gen. Conway led the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force during the 2003 Iraq War and served as a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during his tenure as Commandant of the Marine Corps.

Nor is he the only general to criticize Obama's strategy. Retired Gen. James Mattis also slammed Obama's strategy in testimony given at the House Intelligence Committee on Thursday.

Obama ISIS
Eastern Europe expert: Ukraine faces a frozen conflict

Ukrainian government troops and pro-Russia separatists have created a buffer zone as part of a ceasefire agreement. Expert Joerg Forbrig tells DW that Kyiv now faces an unresolved, frozen conflict in its eastern region.

What does the buffer zone in eastern Ukraine do?

At the moment, it's just trying to spatially separate the two sides. The agreement is that both sides would withdraw by 15 kilometers, so there would be a 30-kilometer corridor between the two warring sides, between the Ukrainian government's army and the separatists and their supporters from Russia.

Who does the buffer zone benefit?

There are a number of factors here. There is a degree of exhaustion both on the part of the Ukrainian government forces and on the part of the separatists in eastern Ukraine. There's a momentum both in Russia and in Ukraine that speaks in favor of a ceasefire at this stage.

On the Ukrainian side, there's obviously the understanding that they cannot defeat Russia and the separatists militarily. There's an election schedule of course, with the parliamentary elections in September. There's an issue still about the gas talks between Russia and Ukraine.

On the Russian side, there's also an understanding that, at this stage, it might be best to pause the conflict and perhaps even freeze it. The favorable outcome of this military conflict for Russia would only be possible if Russia engaged even more openly.

Ukraine troops prepare withdrawal amid holding ceasefire

Ukrainian officials say government troops are preparing to pull out artillery and heavy armored vehicles from an agreed buffer zone. This comes as a fragile truce imposed on September 5 appears to be holding.

 epa04291234 Picture made available 30 June 2014 of Ukrainian solders sitting atop a tank at a position outside Luhansk, Ukraine 29 June 2014. EPA/IVAN BOBERSKYY

Ukrainian government troops are preparing to pull back heavy artillery from a proposed 30-kilometer (20-mile) buffer zone as agreed under a deal struck last week with pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country, a military spokesman said on Monday.

Colonel Andriy Lysenko said a decrease in separatist artillery attacks, and the cessation of firing from Russian territory, had allowed the pull-back by the Ukrainian army.

He told journalists, however, that two Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the past 24 hours despite a September 5 ceasefire deal, which has seen many violations ever since it began. The deaths bring to 39 the number of Ukrainian troops and civilians killed since the ceasefire took effect.

Rebels had also begun withdrawing their heavy artillery, he said, although it was "not as massive as we had expected." 

UKRAINE...........................It's STILL going to get MUCH Worse........................Winter "IS" Coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Police arrest Isamic State terrorist suspect in Berlin

German anti-terror police in Berlin have arrested a man they believe had recently completed training at an "Islamic State" camp in Syria. He had reportedly also fought alongside IS militants.

Dschihadistische Kämpfer

A special unit of the German police force has arrested a suspected member of the self-proclaimed Islamic State ("IS") jihadist group, the public prosecutor's office in Berlin has announced.

The man is believed to have completed weapons training in an IS camp in Syria between January and August this year. DW also understands that the suspect had fought alongside Islamic State militants in Syria before returning to Germany.

The prosecutor's office said the 30-year-old man was a Turkish citizen who had a registered place of residence in the German capital.

ISIS Europe 
Julian Robertson sees TWO bubbles brewing
By Jeff Cox

Hedge fund pioneer Julian Robertson has bad news for those who fear bubbles: There are at least two brewing in the markets now.

The Tiger Management founder believes that even though "the economy is getting better," there are dangers brewing beneath the surface.

"The first bubble is that bonds are at ridiculous levels, so that the saver, the small charity, has no place to put his money except into stocks," Robertson said at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit. "I think that situation is serious on that score. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

"It's a worldwide phenomenon that governments are buying bonds to keep their countries moving along economically. I don't know when (bursting of the bubbles is) going to happen, but I think it will happen in a very bad way."

The ""ONE"" BUBBLE that Rich Folks like Robertson and the REST of the ""PIMPS"" of Wall Street seems to Forget "IS" the Bubble Labeled ""CONFIDENCE,"" and FOLK this Bubble "IS" a Pandora Box YOU Better FEAR Big TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

We all agree: Governments are corrupt, corporations profit-minded

In a world increasingly riven by religious differences, income inequality and polarized politics, there's still plenty of common ground when it comes to public attitudes about major institutions.

Governments are riddled with corruption, and corporations are synonymous with profit and greed.

That's the finding of a global survey of more than 25,000 people about their perceptions on the role and responsibilities of corporations in society and the economy. The collection of responses, assembled here in word clouds, provides a window to the way people around the world view the powerful institutions of business and government.


The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be FRICKING BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Can America Save the World Order?

Kissinger says the current world order is under threat. To rebuild it the US must first rebuild itself.
By James R. Holmes

There’s an old joke among professors. Asked whether he’s read a certain book, the oldtimer replies, “Read it? I haven’t even reviewed it yet!”

The Naval Diplomat hasn’t read Henry Kissinger’s new book World Order yet. Nor will I presume to review it. What I will presume to do is offer some thoughts dredged up by the synopsis he ran in the Wall Street Journal shortly before the book debuted. As befits someone who also published a book with World Order in the title — though without Kissinger’s sales, damn his eyes — I riffed on some of these same themes this week while presenting my ultrasecret anti-China battle plan to the shadowy figures overseeing U.S. strategy in the Pacific.

For Kissinger the bottom line seems to be that the United States should accept that its vision of a law-based international order commands grudging support at best in parts of the world. This runs contrary to traditional ways of thinking. Over a century ago, for instance, Theodore Roosevelt implored advanced nations to exercise an “international police power.” They should keep order in their environs while shepherding developing nations into the advanced world. Franklin Roosevelt envisioned “Four Policemen” during the closing stages of World War II. FDR, that is, hoped the victors would act as international lawmen. And indeed, the Big Four — the United States, Great Britain, the Soviet Union, and China, joined by liberated France — became the permanent five members of the UN Security Council.

I Say Planet Earth "IS" Closer to 1914 than what the ""BIG Government"" Architects want to admit TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
G20 finance ministers add to fears of a stock-market bubble
By Rick Newman

To the list of worriers who feel financial markets are getting overheated, add 20 more.

Finance ministers from the Group of 20, which includes the United States, the U.K, the European Union and China, warned at their latest meeting that financial markets may be headed for a slump. “Downside risks persist, including in financial markets,” the group said in a statement from Cairns, Australia. “We are mindful of the potential for a build-up of excessive risk in financial markets, particularly in an environment of low interest rates and low asset price volatility.”

It’s unusual for government finance ministers to comment on the direction of financial markets, yet concern about inflated stock prices is now mainstream, as Aaron Task and I discuss in the video above. Since the market bottom in 2009, the S&P 500 has risen by about 200%, while overall U.S. economic output has only risen by about 20%. Stock prices relative to earnings are above historical averages. Many top investors have been predicting a market correction for months.

It hasn’t happened, of course. After rising 29% last year, the S&P 500 is up another 8% this year. Yet warning signs are everywhere. Inflation in Europe is so low there’s a risk of deflation, or falling prices, which would be a perverse development because falling prices discourage people from spending, since goods will be cheaper tomorrow. Super-low inflation usually gives a central bank more wiggle room to try monetary stimulus, but so far, the European Central Bank has been reluctant to enact the kind of quantitative easing the Federal Reserve did for nearly six years, beginning in late 2008. The G20 seems to be trying to nudge the ECB toward Fed-style easing—though, ironically, that might inflate stock values even more. 

Analyzing Earnings As Of Q2 2014

With the second quarter earnings report for the S&P 500 now in, I can update my quarterly analysis of earnings and estimate trends through the 2nd quarter of 2014.

Second quarters results were considerably better than the Q1 as activity rebounded following the exceptionally cold winter season.  For the quarter, operating earnings rose from $27.32 per share to $29.45 which translates into a quarterly decrease of 7.8%. While operating earnings are widely discussed by analysts and the general media; there are many problems with the way in which these earnings are derived due to one-time charges, inclusion/exclusion of material events, share buybacks and accounting gimmickry to "beat earnings."

Therefore, from a historical valuation perspective, reported earnings are much more relevant in determining market over/undervaluation levels. On a reported basis, earnings improved from $24.79 to $24.87 or 9.49% from the first quarter.

The rise in both operating and reported earnings for the quarter brought the trailing twelve months earnings per share to $111.94 from $108.85, a 2.84% increase, on an operating basis. The trailing twelve month reported earnings rose by $2.36 from $100.85 to $103.21, an increase of 2.34%.

Importantly, the rebound in Q2 earnings is consistent with the rebound/slowdown recovery that has been the hallmark of the economic cycle following the financial crisis. Historically, these large rebounds in earnings have tended to be one-quarter events followed by a marked slowdown in subsequent growth rates.

Insider Buying Dries Up Defying $275 Billion of Buybacks
By Lu Wang

American companies have seldom spent more money than they are now buying back shares. The same can’t be said for their executives.

A total of 7,181 insiders bought their own stock this year through Sept. 12 and 23,323 sold shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Washington Service. The ratio of buys to sells is near the lowest since 2000. At the same time, corporate repurchases reached $275 billion in the first half of the year, the second busiest since S&P Dow Jones Indices began tracking the data in 1998.

Share purchases by executives are becoming rarer after seven straight quarters of advances pushed valuations in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a four-year high. While companies are pouring money into their own stock because they have nothing better to do with it, officers and directors aren’t -- and that’s a bearish signal for share prices, said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.

Stock Buyback 



The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be FRICKING BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!