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Thursday, October 16, 2014

Chinese Navy Chief Conducts 'Unprecedented' Survey Of Spratly Islands
By Michelle FlorCruz

Chinas appears to have made headway in the so-called ‘reclamation’ of disputed areas in the South China Sea, a project to create new land masses using reefs in areas claimed by both Beijing and its neighbors. According to Taiwan and Hong Kong news sources, China’s naval chief has been surveying islands located in disputed maritime territories, angering nations locked in territorial disputes with China such as the Philppines.

According to Taiwan’s Want China Times, which cited briefing given in Taipei by Lee Hsiang-chou, the director general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, Chinese admiral Wu Shengli, the commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy, completed a survey of five islands in the archipelago known as Spratly Islands. The Spratlys are claimed by multiple Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia. Lee called Wu’s visit to the islands “unprecedented” even for China, a nation that continues to assert claims in the area by setting up oil rigs, military outposts and other structures.

China: Sharpening Swords for War?
By Richard L. Russell

From a realist’s geopolitical perspective, the United States needs to keep eyes on global hot spots with concentrations of power that could adversely affect American national interests.  Of the three geographic centers of global power today, two are engulfed in war while the third is on the war’s precipice.  In Europe, Russia has returned to its quest for global power with its steely paramilitary and military disembowelment of Ukraine.  Moscow’s aggression now looms over other states in Europe, especially the Baltic states and Poland.  In the Middle East, the Islamic State has lurched onto the international scene with a bloody rampage that has torn apart Syria and Iraq.  The Islamic State looks ready is to expand and spill more blood along the borders of Jordan and Turkey and in Kurdish areas in Iraq, notwithstanding the American and international coalition air campaign against the jihadists.

In Asia, China has not yet shed any blood in war.  But a read of Robert Haddick’s new book Fire on the Water: China, America, and the Future of the Pacific painstakingly shows through his level-headed, scholarly, and realist analysis that Beijing is sharpening its swords for war while Washington is distracted by chaos elsewhere.  Haddick rightly judges that the United States “acting as an outside balancer, has played the central role in East Asia’s security, a responsibility that has boosted the prosperity of all.  But just like Europe a century ago, it is doubtful that Asia, left on its own, could shape a stable balance of power in the face of China’s dramatic rise.” 

China Military Buildup Shifts Balance of Power in Asia in Beijing’s Favor

Congressional report warns the danger of U.S.-China conflict is rising
BY: Bill Gertz

China’s decades-long buildup of strategic and conventional military forces is shifting the balance of power in Asia in Beijing’s favor and increasing the risk of a conflict, according to a forthcoming report by a congressional China commission.

China’s military has greatly expanded its air and naval forces and is sharply increasing its missile forces, even while adopting a more hostile posture against the United States and regional allies in Asia, states a late draft of the annual report of the bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

As a result, “the potential for security miscalculation in the region is rising,” the report said, using the euphemism for a conflict or shootout between Chinese forces and U.S. forces or those of its regional allies.

The report paints an alarming picture of China’s growing aggressiveness and expanding power, including development of two new stealth jets, the first deployment of a naval expeditionary amphibious group to the Indian Ocean, and aerial bombing exercises held in Kazakhstan. 

China’s military buildup altering power balance
By William Lowther

China’s ongoing military buildup could destabilize Taiwan, according to a draft copy of the latest report from the US Congress’ US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“China’s rapid military modernization is altering the balance of power in the Asia Pacific,” the draft says.

It says the buildup could “engender destabilizing security competition” between major nearby countries, such as Japan and India, and at the same time it could “exacerbate regional hotspots such as Taiwan.”

The congressional commission’s report is due to be released in its final form next month.

A summary of “a late draft” of the report was published on Tuesday by conservative online newspaper the Washington Free Beacon. 

Japan Has Doubled The Number Of Times It's Scrambled Fighter Jets Against Russia Over The Past 6 Months
By Tim Kelly

CHITOSE, Japan (Reuters) — The number of times Japanese fighter jets scrambled to ward off Russian military aircraft more than doubled in the last six months, amid diplomatic tensions between the two countries which Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is keen to ease.

The increased activity in Japan’s north also comes as the armed forces pivot their focus southwards towards China, the assertive Asian giant which is seen in Tokyo as the more immediate challenge.

According to government figures released this week, instances of fighter jets scrambling into the skies above Japan jumped by 73 per cent in the six months through September, led by sorties confronting Russian bombers and spy planes.

A Top Japanese General Says The US Needs To Be Ready To Confront Chinese Aggression In East Asia
By Richard Sisk,

In stark contrast to White House policy, a top Japanese general on Tuesday said the US military rebalance of forces to the Pacific should confront Chinese aggression in the region.

Japanese Gen. Kiyofumi Iwata, chief of staff of Japan's Ground Self-Defense Force, said that "some countries want to change the status quo by force" in the region.

"This is a reality we must face up to," Iwata said.

He then made clear his intent with a reference to China's declaration late last year of an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea to include the disputed islets called the Senkakus by Japan and the Diaoyu by China.

China warned at the time that aircraft passing through the ADIZ without identifying themselves could be subject to "emergency measures." 

Australia May Not Be Prepared for North-East Asia Conflicts

First part of our interview with Professor Desmond Ball, one of Australia's top security analysts
By Shar Adams, Epoch Times

CANBERRA—Desmond Ball has spent over a quarter of a century as a special professor at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. For Professor Ball, the recent Australian deployment of air power and military personnel to northern Iraq represents a familiar scenario – the Middle East has once again become a distraction from what is needed to defend Australian shores.

“We go through processes [for Australia's defence] … and then they get short circuited because we respond to the war on terror, or Afghanistan or Iraq,” he said. “We end up with a force structure which is totally ad hoc.”

With limited resources, the fear is that Australia is spreading itself too thin to meet the demands of homeland defence.

Billions of defence dollars have been spent on supporting the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, including on heavy equipment like Abrams battle tanks and C17 transport aircraft. This weaponry may be suitable for warfare in the Middle East, but defending Australia in the event of a North-East Asia conflict requires a different force structure, he said. 

China Military

""GLOBAL WAR"" in this DECADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Folks YOU Better Believe OPEC and PUTIN are FRICKING ""***Freaking OUT***"" Right about NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Planet EARTH, YOUR about to find out how Destabilizing the FALLING Price in Crude Oil can BE(***GOT it RIGHT Again***)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IF it Falls below $80/Barrel you begin to see the effects of Market Prices being below the Costs of Production. Below $70 and YOU Crush the Economies of the Producers of Crude Oil and that MEANS ""*****America*****"" TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oil prices headed lower despite Saudi curbs -PIRA's Ross
By Jonathan Leff

NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - World oil prices are set to fall further, extending a months-long rout because Saudi Arabia is unlikely to make deep enough production cuts to erase a growing surplus, according to Gary Ross, chief executive of PIRA Energy Group.

Although there are faint signs of improving fundamentals in some physical crude oil markets, any uptick in prices ahead of OPEC's Nov. 27 meeting will be short-lived. The cartel is struggling to rebalance a world market heading toward a 1 million to 1.5 million barrel per day (bpd) excess next year, he said.

"Structurally, the market is oversupplied. Something has to give and we think it will be price," Ross told Reuters in a interview.

Oil Price Blues (Read: Dangers) for Some
By Steve H. Hanke

As the price of crude oil continues its downward tumble towards $80 per barrel, I am reminded of a similar scenario from near the end of the Cold War in the 1980s. When Saudi Arabia announced in 1985 that protecting oil prices was no longer its main priority, oil production surged and prices fell off a cliff, briefly plunging below $10 per barrel, as I had correctly predicted.

Lower prices delivered a fatal blow to the Soviet economy, which ended up seeing $20 billion per year in oil revenues evaporate. The resulting fiscal shortfalls proved to be a dagger in the heart of the U.S.S.R.

On October 1st of this year, Saudi Arabia’s national oil company announced that it had abandoned a policy of price protection and would start to focus on protecting its market share. Combined with falling global demand and rising supplies elsewhere, oil prices have fallen accordingly. This has put a squeeze on eight of the world’s top oil producers. States like Iran, Venezuela, and Iraq can only balance their current budgets at oil prices ranging from $110 to $135 per barrel (so-called break-even prices).

If oil prices stay below $90 per barrel for any length of time, we will witness massive fiscal squeezes and regime changes in one or more of the following countries: Iran, Bahrain, Ecuador, Venezuela, Algeria, Nigeria, Iraq, or Libya. It will be a movie we have seen before.

Russia's Gazprom Expects Oil Price to Plummet by Another 10-15%

The global oil market slump looks likely to continue, with prices possibly nearing $70 a barrel in the short term, an official of Russian gas producer Gazprom said.

Crude fell more than $1 a barrel on Thursday to a four-year low below $83 a barrel as growing concerns over the global economy stretched a four-month rout.

"It could be at $70-75 in a question of months," Gustavo Delgado, head of Gazprom in Venezuela, told Reuters on the sidelines of an oil conference on Margarita Island. He did not specify whether he was speaking of Brent prices or U.S. crude.

The Russian company participates in several gas and crude projects with Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA.

"Investments right now in oil and energy are being affected by the price fall," Delgado added in the interview late on Wednesday, attributing the drop to economic slowdowns in both Europe and China, plus the rise of new technologies like shale.

A senior official from another Russian company, Rosneft, said the crude price fall could be partly for "speculative" reasons but nevertheless obliged all producers to seek cost reductions. 

Venezuela’s PDVSA head laments global oil “price war”

The falling price of crude and a global price war are disadvantageous for everyone in the international oil market, the new head of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA said.

“The current market situation doesn’t suit anyone, neither consumers nor producers,” Eulogio Del Pino told an oil conference on Venezuela’s Margarita Island.

“We are in a price war.”

Venezuela is calling for an emergency meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – prior to its next scheduled Nov. 27 gathering – to halt the slide in oil prices to their lowest level since 2010.

Global benchmark Brent crude, trading around $85 per barrel on Wednesday, has dropped 25 percent since June due to ample supplies and weak demand.

The price of Venezuela’s oil basket has lost almost $10 per barrel in the last five weeks to $82.72 per barrel, a price that is $16.35 lower than a year ago. 

Falling Oil Prices Could Push Venezuela Over The Edge


"There is nothing good to say about the state of Venezuela’s economy, and this isn’t helping," warns Danske's Lars Christensen as tumbling prices for Venezuela’s oil are threatening to choke off funds (oil is 95% of exports) needed to pay debt.. and that is clear from the collapse of bond prices. The Maduro government desperately needs a rise in oil prices, but Saudi Arabia has so far rebuffed calls for an emergency meeting as it pursues a strategy of waiting out higher cost competitors. OPEC does not plan on meeting until Nov. 27. That is an eternity for a country that is beginning to unravel. 

Did The Saudis Just Get A Tap On The Shoulder?


The US-Saudi "secret" plan that was supposed to crush Putin quickly turned sour when as we reported several days ago, one after another America's own shale plays, which recently entered a very sharp bear market, started appearing on various death watches (case in point today's MHR Second Lien refi which repriced from L+500 to L+750 in minutes).

As a result, one wonders: did Obama realize that Russian "costs" which as everyone knows by now include a Eurpoean triple-dip recession, could also very soon include an insolvent US shale industry, and thus may be just a little too much, and, one further wonders, if he is the one who just tapped Saudi Arabia on the shoulder? 


Don’t Mess With Saudis in Oil Bear Market Global Shakeout
By Isaac Arnsdorf

The bear market in oil is showing the world there’s still only one country in a position to choose winners and losers in the global market: Saudi Arabia.

The world’s largest oil exporter is trying to protect its market share by keeping its production steady even as prices hit a four-year low. Energy producers in turmoil, such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, stand to lose the most, U.S. shale drillers and other Saudi rivals will suffer and industrialized importing countries including Japan will get a boost from cheaper prices.

“Saudi Arabia is the only one in the position of putting more oil on the market when they want to and cutting production when they want to,” said Edward Chow, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington. “Consumers win, producers lose.”

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell as much as 29 percent since June 19 to $82.60 a barrel, the lowest since November 2010. Prices have averaged above $105 a barrel since 2011, the four highest years on record. Brent will stay higher than $80 a barrel, analysts at Bank of America Corp. and BNP Paribas SA said yesterday.

While cheaper crude erodes Saudi Arabia’s income, too, the country has enough reserves and credit to withstand the slump, Chow said. The kingdom needs $83.60 a barrel to balance its budget, and the central bank has $734.7 billion in reserve assets, the International Monetary Fund said. The Saudis ran deficits from the mid-1980s until the late 1990s and may be prepared to do so again, according to Chow. Brent traded at $82.96 as of 12:58 p.m. in London.


Saudi Arabia Still Calling the Shots
By Robert Rapier

The US Shale Oil Boom

There have been a lot of stories over the past few years about the implications of the US shale boom. To review for those who might have been living in a cave for the past 5 years, the marriage of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) has reversed 40 years of declining US oil production and created a shale oil and gas boom.

As amazing as it would have seemed a decade ago, US oil production is increasing at the fastest pace in US history. In the past 5 years US oil production has increased by 3.22 million barrels per day (bpd). The overall global oil production increase during that time was only 3.85 million bpd, meaning the US was responsible for 83.6 percent of the total global increase over the past 5 years. 

Mideast markets bleeding further amid global sell-off

Markets across the Middle East tumbled yesterday as global equities and oil prices continued to decline, while Saudi Arabia’s drop was magnified by investors selling to prepare for a $6bn initial public offer of shares.

Brent crude oil, which has slid more than 28% since June because of slow demand growth and signs that producers are not cutting output, hovered around $83 per barrel, near a four-year low.

Economists and fund managers continue to believe the oil price decline will not be disastrous for Gulf economies and markets. Governments have huge fiscal reserves that will allow them to keep spending, even though they may slow the growth in their budgets if oil prices stay low for a long period.

“Lower oil prices shouldn’t cause too many problems for the Gulf economies thanks in large part to their relative prudence over the past decade,” Jason Tuvey, Middle East economist at London’s Capital Economics, said in a report. “Even so, weaker growth in oil production and less supportive fiscal policy mean that the Gulf economies are likely to slow over the coming years and growth rates of 3%-4%, rather than 6%-7%, will become the ‘new norm’.”

Growth rates of 3%-4% would still be healthy by global standards, but the sight of oil prices collapsing and volatility in international equity markets has spooked some Gulf retail investors.

The main Saudi index closed 3.6% down after tumbling as much as 5.7% earlier in the session. The benchmark has now erased all of the 14% gains which it posted after authorities announced in late July that they would open the market to direct foreign investment early next year.

CRUDE Oil Prices

HEY Obama, Are YOU and Your BAND of FOOLS in YOUR White House Reading THIS?????????????????????????????????????????

Africa stems Ebola via border closings, luck

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) -- Health officials battling the Ebola outbreak that has killed more than 4,500 people in West Africa have managed to limit its spread on the continent to five countries - and two of them appear to have snuffed out the disease.

The developments constitute a modest success in an otherwise bleak situation. 

Obama administration failed to implement all of the CDC’s advice to prevent an Ebola outbreak

Added only 5 of 18 global health centers recommended
By Jim McElhatton - The Washington Times

The Centers for Disease Control told the incoming Obama administration in 2008 that it should establish 18 regional disease detection centers around the world to adequately safeguard the U.S. from emerging health threats like Ebola, according to an agency memo.

But six years later, as the government struggles to contain the fallout from a deadly Ebola outbreak at home and abroad, the CDC still has only 10 centers — and none of them operates in the western Africa region hardest hit by the deadly virus.

“The existing centers have already proven their effectiveness and impact on detecting and responding to outbreaks including avian influenza, aflatoxin poisoning, Rift Valley fever, Ebola and Marburg virus outbreaks,” the CDC said in its memo to the Obama transition team, which The Washington Times obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request. 

CDC denies enterovirus link to illegal-alien kids

Disease common in Latin America was rare in U.S.
By Jerome R. Corsi

NEW YORK – The CDC denies a causal link between the surge of illegal-alien children from Latin America and the enterovirus D-68 outbreak in the United States, but government data show the virus was rare in the U.S. before this year.

“There is no evidence that unaccompanied children brought EV-D68 into the United States; we are not aware of any of these children testing positive for the virus,” the CDC emailed WND in response to a request for comment.

The CDC argued EV-D68 is not new to the U.S., having been identified in California in 1962.

“In previous years, it has not been as commonly identified as other enteroviruses,” CDC said. “This year’s increase in confirmed cases is not due to a recent introduction in the United States.”

However, evidence buried in peer-reviewed medical journals provides support for the argument enterovirus D-68, or EV-D68, in the United States was a relatively rare disease. The EV-D68 epidemic occurred only after the surge this year of unaccompanied alien children illegally crossing the border from Latin America, a region where the virus is more prevalent among young children.

The CDC records nearly 700 people who have been diagnosed with the virus this year. Five children have died while infected.

As WND reported Tuesday, EV-D68, believed to cause polio-like paralysis in addition to flu symptoms, is widely suspected to have a direct connection to the Obama administration policy of placing across the U.S. tens of thousands of minors who have been allowed to enter without a health screening.

D-68 surge coincides with illegal aliens

The surge in EV D-68 in the U.S. became evident in mid-September when the CDC first reported it had reached epidemic levels in six U.S. states: Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky and Missouri.

The surge in unaccompanied minors was also evident in September, with the numbers jumping from 16,067 apprehended in Fiscal Year 2011 to 24,481 in FY 2012 and from 38,833 in FY 2013 to 47,017 in the first eight months of FY 2014.

Currently, a page on the CDC website dedicated to “Enterovirus D68 in the United States, 2014″ discloses, “The United States is currently experiencing a nationwide outbreak of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) associated with severe respiratory illness.”

Obama ""*****ILLEGAL*****"" Immigration!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EBOLA....................................................It's going to get MUCH WORSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ECB's stress test dead on arrival as deflation hits

Regulators are trying to ensure the region's lenders can withstand the worst-case economic calamities. Trouble is, they're testing the wrong things
By Jeremy Warner

It’s the banking fix which is meant to set Europe on the path to economic recovery. Regrettably, it's all too likely to be just another damp squib. Too little, too late, and too backward looking, it may already have become largely irrelevant for a continent that seems fast to be slipping into deflation.

For much of the past year, the European Union’s 130 largest banks, together accounting for 85pc of European banking assets, have been conducting an exhaustive process of “stress testing” their balance sheets against a series of supposedly worst-case economic calamities. One bank, I’m told, has devoted 20pc of its staff to the tests, leaving everything else to go to hell in a handcart.

The purpose of the exercise is to identify which banks do not have sufficient capital to meet the imagined shocks, and then require them to recapitalise accordingly, thus restoring confidence in a banking system that nobody trusts as things stands.

The results are due to be published on 26 October, triggering further capital raising which according to some City estimates could amount to €50bn or more. This is in addition to the €70bn already raised so far this year in anticipation.

Once complete, then credit growth can begin anew, and economic recovery will follow seamlessly in its wake. That at least is the hope; as ever with Europe, it seems to be built largely on sand.

Kyle Bass AQR Europe Banks
Putin Warns Europe Russia to Cut Gas If Ukraine Steals Supplies
By Ilya Arkhipov and Elena Mazneva

President Vladimir Putin warned the European Union that Russia will cut natural gas shipments via Ukraine if the smaller country starts taking fuel.

“There are big transit risks,” Putin said today at a press conference in Belgrade, Serbia. If Russia sees its Ukrainian partners “are starting to siphon off our gas from the export pipeline network, we will respond by reducing flows by the amount stolen.”

Exporter OAO Gazprom (GAZP) has said Ukraine may start taking fuel bound for Europe as it runs low this winter after Russia halted supplies in June over a pricing and debt dispute. The EU, which depends on Russian gas piped across Ukraine for about 15 percent of its needs, has been seeking to broker an interim deal between the two former Soviet allies to avoid a repeat of supply cuts in early 2006 and 2009.

Europe faces major transit risks to gas supplies, warns Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin cautioned that gas supplies to European countries could be compromised unless the Ukraine resolves a gas dispute with Moscow.

Putin Issues 'Nuclear Powers' Warning Over Sanctions
By Damien Sharkov

Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken out against US and EU sanctions on Russia, urging them to remind themselves of the consequences of nuclear conflict between the two sides, in Serbian newspaper daily newspaper Politika today.

“Our partners need to understand that attempts to destabilize Russia using one-sided, illegitimate, restrictive measures will not stabilise [the situation in Ukraine], but only complicate dialogue.”

Putin Warns Of ‘Nuclear Consequences…’
By L. Todd Wood

Vladimir Putin is the gift that just keeps on giving, if you are considering material to write about for The Haven.

Russia is obviously hurting. The economy is in recession, oil prices are plummeting, the sanctions are biting, and Russia is having to cut adverse deals with China to stay afloat. Why Putin thinks China is a better business partner than the West, I have no clue–but that is a different column. 

Putin warns West not to blackmail Russia
By Katarina Subasic with Anna Smolchenko in Moscow

Belgrade (AFP) - President Vladimir Putin accused his US counterpart Barack Obama of a hostile approach towards Russia, warning in a Cold War-style tirade that Moscow would not be blackmailed by the West over Ukraine.

Putin fired off his combative comments shortly before he arrived amid tight security to a red carpet welcome in Belgrade, seeking to cement Russia's influence in its loyal European ally.

Belgrade is staging its first military parade in 30 years to mark the 70th anniversary of its liberation from Nazi occupation -- an event brought forward by four days to coincide with the visit by the Kremlin strongman.

Putin Warns Of "Nuclear Power Consequences" If Attempts To Blackmail Russia Don't Stop

Vladimir Putin slams President Obama for adopting a "hostile" approach in naming Russia as a threat to the world in his recent UN speech. From an interview with Serbia's Politika newspaper, Bloomberg reports,

Putin Natural Gas

Nuclear Conflict!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE

Markets are realising that the five-and-a-half year recovery since the financial crisis may already be over, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Combined tightening by the United States and China has done its worst. Global liquidity is evaporating.

What looked liked a gentle tap on the brakes by the two monetary superpowers has proved too much for a fragile world economy, still locked in "secular stagnation". The latest investor survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers no longer believe the European Central Bank will step into the breach with quantitative easing of its own, at least on a worthwhile scale.

Markets are suddenly prey to the disturbing thought that the five-and-a-half year expansion since the Lehman crisis may already be over, before Europe has regained its prior level of output. That is the chief reason why the price of Brent crude has crashed by 25pc since June. It is why yields on 10-year US Treasuries have fallen to 1.96pc, and why German Bunds are pricing in perma-slump at historic lows of 0.81pc this week.

We will find out soon whether or not this a replay of 1937 when the authorities drained stimulus too early, and set off the second leg of the Great Depression.

If this growth scare presages the end of the cycle, the consequences will be hideous for France, Italy, Spain, Holland, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, and others already in deflation, or close to it. The higher their debt ratios, the worse the damage. 


A mad, mad world as even the experts back the nuclear option of helicopter money

It's astonishing to see how much traction this way of thinking seems to be getting among those who, frankly, should know better
By Jeremy Warner

 What start out as fringe ideas sometimes have a nasty habit of going mainstream. Thus it is with the proposition that central bank money printing should be applied not just to asset purchases but directly to funding government deficits and boosting consumption - what Milton Friedman called "helicopter" money.

I’ve been quite astonished by how much traction this way of thinking seems to be getting among those who, frankly, should know better. For instance, at an Institute of International Finance (IIF) seminar in Washington last week, there was complete consensus on a panel of leading opinion formers that this might indeed offer the best way forward for a fast stagnating world economy.

Two of the speakers you might regard as just the usual suspects – Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary, and the uber Keynsian Brad DeLong, professor of economics at Berkeley. More surprisingly, they were also joined by Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz and an acknowledged "expert" on the economics of financial markets. He above all should know that direct fiscal financing by the central bank is the path to economic ruin.

Let me explain why. Money - which in its modern form amounts essentially just to IOUs printed on a piece of paper or more commonly kept in digital form on global computer servers - is above all about trust. Fiat currencies are based entirely on the ability of central bankers to maintain that credibility. Endanger the trust, and capital will take flight, the currency will plunge, inflation will take root, and eventually even the local population will lose all faith in the value of their money.

We’ve seen this happen with overseas currencies on countless occasions in the past. The counter examples of apparently successful deficit financing are extremely rare – Japan in the 1930s may be one high profile case of relative success, though given the subsequent period of military expansionism it helped foster, you might wonder about that one too. In any case, it was a very different and more insular world back then.


Well IF this Week of hasn't Proved that the Central Banksters and ""PIMPS"" of Wall Street have been FUCKING Lying their ASSES Off about this ""FAUX"" Recovery then WATCH this Video and THEN Apply EVERYTHING I have been WARNING about for the last 3 YEARS HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 


Folks NONE of this has been REAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


""***Buy The Dip***""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 




Data Dependent Fed Ignores 'Data' - Bullard Joins Williams In Call For QE4

As yet another fed speaker takes the jawboning lectern today, it is becomingly increasingly clear that The Fed truly has only one mandate - to keep stocks up. While claiming to be "data-dependent", which judging by the general trend of government-supplied data (and President Obama), things are going great; Jim Bullard joins his intervention-prone colleague Williams:


Uncle Ben 's ""QE"" VooDoo IS going to FAIL Everywhere it was TRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Attention Planet Earth.........................China's Economy has all ready dropped below 7% Growth and there "IS" Rumors that REAL GDP Growth in 2015 WILL BE Below 5%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To ALL Chinese Exporters.............................BE Very Afraid of the American Consumer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Walmart Cuts Its Sales Forecast as Holiday Hopes Darken

Ahead of what is expected to be a tough holiday season, Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, cut its annual sales growth forecast on Wednesday, and it announced that it would sharply slow openings of its superstores in the United States next year.

Walmart expects net sales to grow 2 to 3 percent this year, substantially less than a previous forecast for 3 to 5 percent growth, hurt by sluggish store traffic and currency fluctuations. Walmart shares closed down 3.6 percent after the announcement. 

Local governments in China cook the books to inflate revenue

Some local governments in China have begun cutting expenditure on non-essential investments, while seeking new financial sources by using reserve funds and selling local government assets to ease financial pressure, Beijing-based Economic Information Daily reports.

Against the backdrop of the government loosening its grip on the property sector and in view of current economic stagnation, financial departments of some local governments are resorting to extreme measures such as cooking their books to inflate revenue.

Financial departments usually cook their books by purposefully altering financial accounts to show high revenue if they find that their revenue targets are set too high at the beginning of a year and cannot be achieved by year end.

They may provide funds to subsidize enterprises and then reimburse the money through tax payments by these enterprises, which amounts to falsifying financial information by inflating spending and revenue.

A financial official in a city in northern China told the newspaper that falsifying financial records is a long-standing practice and that it is getting worse. Last year, 15% of the city's recorded revenue was a result of these practices. In some county governments, up to 30% of their recorded revenue was generated this way.

China's weak power use points to subdued economic activity

BEIJING, Oct. 16 -- China's electricity consumption, an important indicator of economic activity, remained lukewarm in September in another sign of subdued strength in the world's second-largest economy.

Power use rose 2.7 percent year on year to 457 billion kilowatt hours in September, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said on Thursday.

The data, though recovering from a 1.5-percent drop in August, was still weak. In the first nine months, power use went up 3.9 percent, significantly below the market forecast of around 6 percent for the whole year.

Between January and September, electricity use by primary industry went up 2.4 percent from a year earlier. Power consumption by secondary industry reached 2.98 trillion kwh, up 4 percent, while that by tertiary industry gained 5.7 percent to reach 503.3 billion kwh.

"Cavalry Won't Be Coming From The East" - China New Loans Jump But Not Nearly Enough, FX Reserves Drop Most On Record

Another month passes, and once again everyone gets a hearty laugh at China's endless promises to really start deleveraging for real, seriously this time, we promise... just not right now. Case in point, yesterday's report of new credit numbers which showed that in September new loans were CNY857.2bn, up from CNY702.5bn in August and well above consensus of CNY750bn. In fact, this was the highest amount of new loans for the month of September on record.

China’s Vicious Growth Circle
By Keyu Jin

Keyu Jin is Lecturer in Economics at the London School of Economics

LONDON – Most economists have a reason to be worried about China’s economy – whether it be low consumption and large external surpluses, industrial overcapacity, environmental degradation, or government interventions like capital controls or financial repression. What many fail to recognize is that these are merely the symptoms of a single underlying problem: China’s skewed growth model.

That model is, to some extent, a policy-induced construct, the result of a deep-rooted bias toward construction and manufacturing as the leading drivers of economic development. This predilection harkens back to the Great Leap Forward of the 1950s, when scrap metal was melted to meet wildly optimistic steel-production targets, thereby advancing Mao’s dream of rapid industrialization.

Today, China’s proclivity for industrial production is manifested in large-scale manufacturing and infrastructure projects, encouraged by direct and indirect government subsidies. By boosting investment and generating tax revenue for local governments, this approach has a more immediate positive impact on GDP than efforts to develop the service sector.

China Sept data shows loan recovery but weak investment, forex outflows cloud picture
By Jake Spring and Kevin Yao

BEIJING, Oct 16 (Reuters) - China's banks increased lending in September, supporting Beijing's efforts to guide capital into the struggling economy, but foreign investment remained weak and foreign exchange reserve data showed signs of potential capital flight.

Other data this week was also mixed, with exports and imports beating expectations but consumer inflation slipping to its lowest in nearly 5 years, pointing to broader weakness in the economy and reinforcing expectations that authorities will need to roll out more stimulus measures.

Together, the numbers appear to point to an economy which continues to gradually cool, though it may be at less risk of a sharp slowdown than feared just a month or two ago.

September industrial output, retail sales and investment numbers will be released on Oct 21 along with third-quarter GDP, which is expected to show the world's second-largest economy grew at its weakest pace in more than five years as sluggish domestic demand and a rapidly cooling property market weighed on other sectors.

New yuan loans in September came in at 857.2 billion yuan($140.00 billion), exceeding a Reuters poll handily, while broad money supply rose 12.9 percent, in line with forecasts.

Total social financing, a homegrown indicator which attempts to measure all credit creation in the economy including shadow banking, grew modestly.

Economists said much of the increase in lending appeared to be traditional loans linked to genuine economic activity, as opposed to riskier ones which are often used for speculative activities in the shadow banking sector, which are harder to detect and regulate as banks move them off their balance sheets.

China's Foreign Reserves Drop Amid Recovering Credit Condition

China's freshly released credit data shows that new loans have recovered to the normal level due to the ongoing targeted easing policies, but the de-leveraging of shadow banking activity continues, says a research report by ANZ's chief China economist Liu Li-Gang.

China’s new RMB loans picked up to RMB857.2 billion in September, above market expectations. It was also higher than the RMB702.5 billion in the prior month and RMB787 billion in September 2013.

China's new loans' recovery back to a normal level probably reflects the ongoing targeted easing by the People's Bank of China (PBoC).

But the aggregate financing still remains lukewarm, at RMB1.05 trillion in September, compared with RMB1.4 trillion last September. This suggested that the de-leveraging of shadow banking activity continues.

The share of the off-balance-sheet financing dropped to about 18% of aggregate financing in the first three quarters of this year, reaching the lowest level of since the fourth quarter 2012

China coal, iron ore imports slump on weak demand, could keep dropping

* Iron ore, coal, soy imports drop in Aug from mth before

* Analysts say falls set to continue

* Copper shipments steady, crude oil imports rise

* China steel mills have been slashing output

By Fayen Wong

SHANGHAI, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Chinese imports of iron ore and coal dropped sharply in August from the month before amid slackening demand and abundant supply, with rapidly falling prices failing to stoke appetite in the world's top buyer of those commodities.

A swift retreat in Chinese demand has already driven global iron ore prices to near five-year lows and local coal prices to their weakest in six, with analysts warning that the outlook for shipments to the country remains grim in the wake of its economic slowdown and festering oversupply.

China's Economy "IS" the Biggest FRAUD on Planet Earth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

China HARD Landing......................................Has BEGUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
Eurozone inflation slumps as currency bloc faces triple-dip recession

Annual inflation dropped to 0.3pc in the year to September as the region's GDP looks set to contract in the third quarter of the year. 
By Peter Spence

Price growth in the eurozone fell to a meagre 0.3pc in the year to September, as the region remains stuck in low growth and low inflation territory.

The headline inflation reading was in-line with earlier flash estimate published by Eurostat, confirming that the measure had fallen to a near five-year low.

Five eurozone members saw prices fall - outright deflation - in the same period, including Italy and Spain.

The data represented "worrying and disappointing news for the European Central Bank (ECB)", said Howard Archer, of IHS Global Insight.

"The ECB will undoubtedly be fervently hoping that the euro falls further and that this feeds through to push up import prices sooner rather than later", said Mr Archer.

""PIIGS"" are STILL ""PIIGS"" no matter what the ASSHOLES are Saying on CNBC and Blomberg Today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry France, The Bond Market Has Spoken: You Are Not In The "Core" Anymore


What's French for 'sacre bleu'? While the fundamental reality of France's record unemployment, plunging industrial production and economic growth, and treaty-busting deficits are all fact, for many months now, the 'market' has been convinced at Draghi's omnipotence and enabled French bonds to trade as if they are 'in the core'. But... on the heels of Sapin's slap in the face of Schaeuble, shunning of Brussels, the market appears to be changing its mind about France's credit worthiness (risk is up over 30% in the last week). Across Europe, we are witnessing a 2012 replay as re-denomination risk rises and risk spreads between the periphery (which means everything but Germany) and Germany surge... 

FRANCE.................................EMU's NEXT ""PIIGS""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

8 European Countries In Outright Deflation As Inflation Expectations Crash To Record Low

Forward inflation expectations for Europe have collapsed to all-time record lows (based on 5Y forward implied 5Y inflation) as the market grows increasingly impatient at Draghi's dragging his "whatever it takes" feet on pulling the sovereign QE trigger.

Borrowing costs jump for fragile euro zone states

* Greek 10-year yields shoot up, near 9 pct

* Bund yields hit new lows as investors seek refuge

* Spain misses target at auction, spreads widen

* Investors start to lose faith in ECB backstop (Updates prices, adds Greek minister comments, U.S. data)

By John Geddie

LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Borrowing costs for some of the euro zone's most highly indebted southern states shot higher on Thursday, as fears of slowing economic growth wounded confidence that the European Central Bank could avert another debt crisis in the bloc.

Greek government bonds were the hardest hit as a sharp sell-off gripped financial markets for a second day, with 10-year yields rising to nearly 9 percent, while Spain missed its target at a bond auction due to weak demand from investors.

With stocks volatile and oil prices plunging, investors sought refuge in safe-haven German bonds, pushing yields on the euro zone benchmark to record lows. 

ECB eyes extra funding to Greek banks as market plunge rocks Athens

* ECB to trim haircut applied on Greek banks' collateral

* Move aims to boost ECB liquidity to banks

* Greek markets under pressure over early bailout exit (Adds Greek finance minister comment)

By George Georgiopoulos and John O'Donnell

ATHENS/FRANKFURT, Oct 16 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will loosen its rules on collateral quality to give Greek banks access to more funding, a Greek central bank official said, to keep lenders steady after Greek stocks and bonds dived.

Another person familiar with the matter said the ECB was set to discuss loosening collateral rules for Greek banks at a meeting of policymakers on Thursday.

"The move was decided late on Wednesday evening after talks between the government, the ECB and Greece's central bank governor," the Greek official told Reuters, declining to be named. "It is a supportive move given the pressures in the last two days."

Greek Bond Rout Drags Down Markets From Ireland to France
By Lukanyo Mnyanda

Greece’s government debt is back in the spotlight and investors are looking for the exit.

As the four-day rout in Greek bonds sent yields to the highest since January, the selloff started to infect nations from Ireland to Portugal and even larger countries such as France. In Spain, a debt auction fell short of the government’s maximum target, and European stocks extended their longest losing streak since 2003. German bunds were sheltered from the slump, with demand for the safest assets pushing their yields to a record low.

“We are in a typical flight-to-quality environment with substantial losses in stock markets and wider spreads,” said Patrick Jacq, a fixed-income strategist at BNP Paribas SA in Paris. “The Spanish auction suffered from the environment, not from domestic reasons. It’s the market environment which is not favorable.”

GREECE............................................NO HOPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EUROPE.......................................Totally FUCKED for the REST of this DECADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thursday, June 19, 2014

NEVER Forget America........................Obama MADE this POSSIBLE along with the ""LIBERALS"" that Reelected HIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Planet EARTH You better Hope to GOD these Agents can't be USED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Iraq: Isis Seizes Saddam Hussein's Chemical Weapons Storage Facility
By Umberto Bacchi

Islamist militants in Iraq have taken over a military complex containing a stockpile of old chemical weapons from Saddam Hussein's era.

The US State Department said that they believe jihadist fighters with Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) will not be able to make any use of the material seized at the Al Muthanna complex as it is too old, contaminated and difficult to move.

"We do not believe that the complex contains CW materials of military value and it would be very difficult, if not impossible to safely move the materials," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told the Wall Street Journal.

Confirmed: ISIS controls and is actively utilizing Saddam era chemical weapons facility
By United Press International

The New York Times has confirmed fears that the Islamic State now controls a Saddam-era chemical weapons facility believed to containing active weaponry in Al Muthanna, Iraq.

First reported by the Huffington Post and later confirmed by the New York Times, the terrorist group's newly acquired arms came to international attention after a report released by the Israel-based Global Research in International Affairs Center suggested there was strong evidence Islamic State militants used the weapons against Kurdish soldiers in Syria after seizing them in June.

According to the Huffington Post's initial report, "The [GRIAC] report accuses the Islamic State of using chemical weapons in a July 12 battle in an eastern part of Kobani during a previous offensive into the Kurdish enclave."

"The site of the battle is now controlled by ISIS. [Jonathan Spyer of GRIAC] cites signs of a chemical weapons attack mentioned by the health minister of Kobani to the Lebanese online news outlet Al-Modon four days after the attack. In Spyer's telling, the minister said that the corpses of three Kurdish fighters exhibited 'burns and white spots ... [that] indicated the use of chemicals, which led to deaths without any visible wounds or external bleeding.' The bodies had not been hit by bullets, the minister added."

Gruesome photos may show ISIS using chemical weapons on Kurds, report says
By Paul Alster

Disturbing new photos of ethnic Kurds killed by Islamic State fighters are stoking fears the terrorist army may be using chemical weapons seized from Saddam Hussein’s old arsenals, according to a Middle East watchdog.

The pictures, obtained by the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), show the bodies of Syrian Kurds who appear to have been gassed by ISIS in the besieged Kobani region this July.

That fighting came just one month after Islamic State forces surged through the once-notorious Muthanna compound in Iraq, the massive base where Hussein began producing chemical weapons in the 1980s, which he used to kill thousands of Kurds in Halabja in northern Iraq in 1988.

Jonathan Spyer, editor of the MERIA Journal, told that experts believe the Kurds were slaughtered in July with what “appears to be a case of mustard gas or some kind of blistering agent.”
“It is fairly concerning that, if the pictures are genuine -- and I have no reason to believe they are not -- then this [use of chemical weapons] is looking clearer and clearer,” Spyer said.

ISIS......................................................PURE Evil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9 Ominous Signals Coming From The Financial Markets That We Have Not Seen In Years
By Michael Snyder

Is the stock market about to crash?  Hopefully not, and there definitely have been quite a few "false alarms" over the past few years.  But without a doubt we have been living through one of the greatest financial bubbles in U.S. history, and the markets are absolutely primed for a full-blown crash.  That doesn't mean that one will happen now, but we are starting to see some ominous things happen in the financial world that we have not seen happen in a very long time.  So many of the same patterns that we witnessed just prior to the bursting of the dotcom bubble and just prior to the 2008 financial crisis are repeating themselves again.  Hopefully we still have at least a little bit more time before stocks completely crash, because when this market does implode it is going to be a doozy.

The following are 9 ominous signals coming from the financial markets that we have not seen in years...

#1 By the time the markets closed on Monday, we had witnessed the biggest three day decline for U.S. stocks since 2011.

12 Charts That Show The Permanent Damage That Has Been Done To The U.S. Economy
By Michael Snyder

Most people that discuss the "economic collapse" focus on what is coming in the future.  And without a doubt, we are on the verge of some incredibly hard times.  But what often gets neglected is the immense permanent damage that has been done to the U.S. economy by the long-term economic collapse that we are already experiencing.  In this article I am going to share with you 12 economic charts that show that we are in much, much worse shape than we were five or ten years ago.  The long-term problems that are eating away at the foundations of our economy like cancer have not been fixed.  In fact, many of them continue to get even worse year after year.  But because unprecedented levels of government debt and reckless money printing by the Federal Reserve have bought us a very short window of relative stability, most Americans don't seem too concerned about our long-term problems.  They seem to have faith that our "leaders" will be able to find a way to muddle through whatever challenges are ahead.  Hopefully this article will be a wake up call.  The last major wave of the economic collapse did a colossal amount of damage to our economic foundations, and now the next major wave of the economic collapse is rapidly approaching.

#1 Employment

If A Few Ebola Cases Can Make The Stock Market Crash This Much, What Would A Full-Blown Pandemic Mean?
By Michael Snyder

Is Ebola going to cause another of the massive October stock market crashes that Wall Street is famous for?  At one point on Wednesday, the Dow was down a staggering 460 points.  It ultimately closed down just 173 points, but this was the fifth day in a row that the Dow has declined.  And of course Ebola is one of the primary things that is being blamed for this stunning stock market drop.  Since September 19th, we have seen the S&P 500 fall about 7 percent and the Nasdaq fall nearly 10 percent.  The VIX (the most important measure of volatility on Wall Street) shot up an astounding 22 percent on Wednesday.  So many of the ominous signs for the markets that I wrote about on Tuesday are now even worse.  If a handful of Ebola cases in the United States can cause this much panic in the financial world, what would a full-blown pandemic look like?

Of course Ebola is not the only reason why stocks are declining.  Just look at what is happening over in Europe.  The European Stoxx 600 index is already down a whopping 11.4 percent from the high that it hit just 18 days ago.  That is officially considered to be "correction" territory.

And Greece experienced a full-blown stock market collapse on Wednesday...

The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be FRICKING BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EBOLA.....................................It's going to get MUCH WORSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Michael Snyder

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Well ain't this SPECIAL........................Turkey, A NATO Ally with the 2nd Largest Military in the Alliance and has a VERY Real Possibility for a ""***CIVIL War***"" thanks to ISIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ISIS "IS" using the KURDS to Divide Obama's Grand Alliance of the ""Unwilling""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Turkey Army Hits PKK Targets as Unrest Over Kobani Deepens
By Onur Ant and Taylan Bilgic

The Turkish military said it struck Kurdish militant targets yesterday after troops came under fire from the rebels, in the latest escalation that threatens peace talks seeking to end a three-decade Kurdish insurgency.

Troops at a military outpost in the southeastern town of Daglica near Turkey’s borders with Iran and Iraq “silenced” Kurdish militants after being attacked from multiple locations, the army said in a statement today. Fighting also broke out in the eastern province of Tunceli after militants “harassed” a commando unit, it said.

Unrest erupted across southeast Turkey this month as thousands of Kurds took to the streets to protest against what they say is the government’s failure to prevent Islamic State from overrunning the Kurdish town of Kobani in Syria. More than 30 people have been killed in the clashes, according to the government. Kurdish fighters in Kobani are largely members of the YPG, an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a separatist group long classified as terrorists by Turkey, the U.S. and European Union.

Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK, said earlier this month that peace talks with the government could collapse if Kobani fell to Islamic State. He called for restraint among his supporters and urged the government to accelerate the peace process to grant Kurds wider rights.

TURKEY...........................................A NATO Ally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ISIS..............................................PURE Evil and Running Circles around Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Goldman Slashes European Growth Forecast, Sees Triple-Dip Recession In Q3


As if to rub salt into the wounds of Europe's death by a thousand-downgrades, Goldman Sachs followed up Germany's decision to drastically cut its growth outlook for 2014 (+1.2% from +1.8%) and 2015 (+1.3% from +2.0%) by slashing its forecast for Europe in Q3 to a triple-dip recessionary -0.15% GDP growth. This is dramatically below an "over-optimistic" consensus of +0.35% as incoming data is notably weaker than expected. The DAX remains well below the crucial 9,000 level (having plunged early in the European session) and bund yields have collapsed to new record lows. 

Too-Big-to-Fail Banks Face Up to $870 Billion Capital Gap
By John Glover and Jim Brunsden

Too big to fail is likely to prove a costly epithet for the world’s biggest banks as regulators demand they increase holdings of debt securities to cover losses should they collapse.

The shortfall facing lenders from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) to HSBC Holdings Plc could be as much as $870 billion, according to estimates from AllianceBernstein Ltd., or as little as $237 billion forecast by Barclays Plc.

The range is so wide because proposals from the Basel-based Financial Stability Board outline various possibilities for the amount lenders need to have available as a portion of risk-weighted assets. With those holdings in excess of $21 trillion at the lenders most directly affected, small changes to assumptions translate into big numbers. 

""TBTF"" Banking Types!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wall Street: 98% Risk of Crash This Year

Earlier this year, a select group of Wall Street Insiders were surveyed, and the results were ominous. These financial experts and fund managers predicted a 98% chance a stock market crash will happen in the next six months.

Gary Shilling, one of Wall Street’s top economists, says the S&P Index could drop as low as 800, a 42% decline.

Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the world’s biggest bond fund managers and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, says the real damage is yet to come and an “ominous third phase” will “far exceed the damage of 2008.”

And Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff, author of “The Real Crash: American’s Coming Bankruptcy,” warns, “I am 100% confident the crisis that we’re going to have will be much worse than the one we had in 2008.”

Even billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total Market Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

'Everybody' hates Treasuries...and then there's Gary Shilling

Continued buying of U.S. Treasuries has been one of the most surprising developments in financial markets in recent years -- certainly in 2014. But while "everybody" has been wrong about Treasuries, Gary Shilling has remain steadfastly bullish

Bloomberg Surveillance: Shilling, Stein and Avstreih

Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Michael McKee has the economy and the markets "under surveillance."

GUESTS: A Gary Shilling Bloomberg View Columnist Bloomberg View on investing and deflation

Bond Market Convinced Fed Inflation Goal Elusive This Decade
By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings

When it comes to spurring inflation in the U.S. economy, the bond market is becoming convinced that the Federal Reserve has almost no chance of achieving its 2 percent target before the end of the decade.

Inflation expectations have plummeted in the past three months, with yields of Treasuries (BUSY) implying consumer prices will rise an average 1.5 percent annually through the third quarter of 2019. In the past decade, those predictions have come within 0.1 percentage point of the actual rate of price increases in the following five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Even after the Fed inundated the economy with more than $3.5 trillion since 2008, bond traders are showing little fear of inflation. That may help influence U.S. monetary policy and make it harder for Fed officials to raise interest rates from close to zero as global growth weakens and the International Monetary Fund points to disinflation as a more imminent concern.

“The longer inflation rates stay below their targets, the longer the Fed’s going to stay on hold,” Gregory Whiteley, a money manager at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital LP, which oversees $56 billion, said by telephone yesterday. “The burden of proof is more on the hawks and the people arguing for a rise in rates. They’re the people who have to make the case.”

PaPa BEAR Gary Shilling.............................EUROPE "IS" Totally SCREWED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Merkel Budget Risk as Germany’s Economy Projected to Slow
By Brian Parkin and Patrick Donahue

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s pledge to forgo new borrowing next year for the first time since 1969 may be at risk after her government today cut its economic growth forecast on a declining outlook for German exports.

Europe’s biggest economy will probably grow by 1.2 percent this year and by 1.3 percent in 2015, marking respective drops from 1.8 percent and 2.0 percent forecast in April, the Economy Ministry said today in its biannual review. Economic growth of 0.7 percent in the first quarter fueled government optimism that it could put its budget in balance.

Exports are “in extremely rough waters,” buffeted by geopolitical developments including the Ukraine crisis, said Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel in an e-mailed statement. The Social Democrat, whose party is the junior partner in Merkel’s government, urged the coalition to boost infrastructure spending to underpin demand.

The latest forecasts suggest that Merkel’s plan to balance the budget to the last euro cent may be in doubt unless the economy grows faster. Merkel snubbed calls earlier this month from euro-area partners and the International Monetary Fund to spend more to stave off weakening growth. Gabriel said he still expects the government to balance its books, though the economic growth reduction “will have an impact” on the budget, he said today at a press conference in Berlin, without being more specific. 

Germany Cuts Growth Outlook as Recession Peril Mounts
By Catherine Bosley and Brian Parkin 

Germany cut its growth outlook and investor confidence fell to the weakest level in two years as recession concerns mount in Europe’s biggest economy.

The Economy Ministry reduced its 2014 economic-growth forecast to 1.2 percent from 1.8 percent, and its 2015 prediction to 1.3 percent from 2 percent. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations slid to minus 3.6 in October from 6.9 in September, the 10th monthly decline and the first negative reading since November 2012.

ZEW President Clemens Fuest said he doesn’t rule out a technical recession, or two quarters of contraction, and both he and Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel called for more investment. That might aid the European Central Bank in its battle to revive the recovery in the 18-nation euro area.

GERMANY................................The Socialists in Brussels WORST Nightmare!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

U.K. Inflation Rate Falls to Five-Year Low of 1.2%
By Jennifer Ryan

A surprise drop in U.K. inflation to the lowest level in five years may give Mark Carney scope to keep interest rates at a record low for longer.

The rate of consumer-price growth declined in September to 1.2 percent, the least since 2009, as falling oil prices and a stronger pound lowered the cost of imports. The report from the Office for National Statistics underscores the case for the Bank of England governor to maintain emergency policy settings as a deterioration in the euro-area economy threatens the U.K.’s expansion.

Officials left their benchmark at 0.5 percent this month and Carney said yesterday that “a benign global inflationary environment” would be a key factor for the path of policy. Sterling, which has appreciated nearly 7 percent in the past year, slipped as investors bet the data will support rates being left on hold further into next year.

“It’s getting more and more difficult to see a short-term increase in rates,” said Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec Securities Ltd. in London. “It may well be that we don’t get a change in rates until summer next year, given the global outlook and the inflation environment.”

The rate of consumer-price growth dropped from 1.5 percent in August. The September figure compares with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey for 1.4 percent. Core inflation also slowed to a five-year low.

DEFLATION............................................Planet EARTH's Worst Nightmare!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!