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Monday, August 31, 2015

Zero Rates Kill Discipline in Financial Markets: Blinder

Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and professor of economics at Princeton University, talks about inflation expectation and Fed monetary policy. Blinder speaks with Brendan Greeley on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Markets" from the sidelines of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. 

Goldman Warns This Extreme Indicator "Is Rare Outside Of A Recession"

The current VIX level of 26 is equal to the median VIX level over the last three recessions. As Goldman warns, while extreme VIX levels periodically occur, our analysis shows that VIX levels in the high-twenties to low-thirties for extended periods of time are rare outside of recessions. Furthermore, this was foreseeable as equities were ignoring potential warning signs from other asset classes prior to the recent sell-off.

Via Goldman Sachs,

While extreme VIX levels periodically occur, our analysis shows that VIX levels in the high- twenties to low-thirties for extended periods of time are rare outside of recessions. The second quarter revised US GDP print was 3.7% and our tracking estimate for Q3 currently stands at 2.3%, which biases us toward a mean reversion to lower VIX levels.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Deteriorates
August 31, 2015
By Jill Mislinski

We have added the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) focusing on the General Business Conditions Index to our series of regional Fed updates. This indicator measures manufacturing activity in Texas.

Here is an excerpt from the latest report:

Texas factory activity was essentially flat in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, climbed to near zero (-0.8), suggesting output held steady after five months of declines.

Perceptions of broader business deteriorated markedly in August. The general business activity index dropped 11 points from -4.6 to -15.8, and the company outlook index also posted a double-digit decline, coming in at -10.3. 

Dallas Fed Dead-Cat-Bounce Collapses To Post-2009 Recession Lows

With the biggest miss sicne April 2013, Dallas Fed's 2-month dead-cat-bounce has collapsed to -15.8 (against expectations of -4.0). This is practically the weakest level for the manufacturing index since 2009. The entire report is a disaster - Fisher's exit seems well timed? - as New Orders crash from +0.7 to -12.5 and Pries Paid craters from +0.1 to -8.0.Even worse, 14 of the 15 'hope' indicators declined and as one respondent warned "the quantitative easing hangover is starting." We have 3 simple words - "not unequivocally good."


Take The Opportunity To Bail Before Its Too Late
By Jim Quinn

Last week ended with the cackling hens on CNBC and the spokesmodels on Bloomberg bloviating about the temporary pothole on the road to riches. They assured their few thousand remaining viewers the 11% plunge in the stock market was caused by China and the communist government’s direct intervention in their stock market, arrest of a brokerage CEO, and threat to prosecute sellers surely cured what ails their market. The Fed and their Plunge Protection Team co-conspirators reversed the free fall, manipulating derivatives and creating a short seller covering rally back to previous week levels. The moneyed interests are desperate to retain the appearance of normality and stability, as their debt saturated system teeters on the verge of collapse.

John Hussman’s weekly letter provides sound advice for anyone looking to avoid a 50% loss in the next 18 months. The market has been overvalued for the last three years and now sits at overvaluation levels on par with 1929 and 2000. The difference is that fear has been overtaking greed in the psyches of traders. The average Joe isn’t in the market. Only the Ivy League MBA High frequency trading computer gurus are playing in this rigged market. The 1,100 point crash last Monday is what happens when arrogant young traders, fear and computer algorithms combine in a perfect storm of mindless selling. Suddenly the pompous risk takers became frightened risk averse lemmings.

The single most important thing for investors to understand here is how current market conditions differ from those that existed through the majority of the market advance of recent years. The difference isn’t valuations. On measures that are best correlated with actual subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns, the market has advanced from strenuous, to extreme, to obscene overvaluation, largely without consequence. The difference is that investor risk-preferences have shifted from risk-seeking to risk-aversion.

If there is a single lesson to be learned from the period since 2009, it is not a lesson about the irrelevance of valuations, nor about the omnipotence of the Federal Reserve. Rather, it is a lesson about the importance of investor attitudes toward risk, and the effectiveness of measuring those preferences directly through the broad uniformity or divergence of individual stocks, industries, sectors, and security types. In prior market cycles, the emergence of extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions was typically accompanied or closely followed by deterioration in market internals. In the face of Fed induced yield-seeking speculation, one needed to wait until market internals deteriorated explicitly. When rich valuations are coupled with deterioration in market internals, overvaluation that previously seemed irrelevant has often transformed into sudden and vertical market losses.

With corporate profits falling, margin debt at all-time highs, the Fed preparing to raise rates, China’s fake economic system imploding, currency wars breaking out across the globe, emerging markets in turmoil, oil dependent countries in the Middle East seeing budgets go deeply in the red, Greece and the other insolvent southern European countries nearing collapse and tensions rising between Russia, Europe and the U.S., there is plenty to fear in this central banker created debt bubble world. History teaches us this isn’t over. It’s only just begun. The bubblevision assertions that the worst is behind us is false. They will insist all is well until you’ve lost half your net worth. When fear overtakes greed, neither monetary easing, propaganda, nor acts of desperation by politicians, government bureaucrats, or central bankers will turn the tide. 

""LAB RATS"" of America, I have some ""GOOD NEWS"" for YOU All.......................Enjoy what "IS" Left of 2015 because ""2016"" IS going to be a REAL BITCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Stock Market Calls Fed’s Bluff
By: Michael Pento

As the Fed nears its proposed first rate hike in nine years the stock market is becoming frantic.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 10% on the year, as markets digest the troubling reality that our central bank may be raising interest rates into an emerging worldwide deflationary collapse.

The Fed normally raises rates when inflation is becoming intractable and robust growth is sending long-term rates spiking. However, this proposed rate hike cycle is occurring within the context of anemic growth and deflationary forces that are causing long-term U.S. Treasury rates to fall.

The yield curve spread, specifically the difference between Fed Funds Rate and the 10-year Note, is usually close to 4 percentage points at the start of major tightening cycles. This was the case at the start of the 1994 and 2004 campaigns to curb inflation. However, this go around the spread is less than 2 percentage points and the benchmark 10-Year Note yield is falling. This means the yield curve will invert very quickly and cut off banks’ profitability and incentives to lend; which will greatly exacerbate the deflationary impulses reverberating across the globe.

These deflationary forces will collide head on with a stock market that is already extremely overvalued as measured by Tobin’s Q ratio (the total value of corporate equities/replacement cost) and the total market cap to GDP.  

The problem for China is that the government spent $20 trillion since 2007 building an unprecedented and unsustainable fixed asset bubble. Now that misallocation of capital has exhausted itself and the nation is left drowning in debt.  Those emerging market economies who supplied China with its infrastructure materials have run out of that bubble-induced demand and are now flirting with recession.

Europe, a major exporter to China, is growing at just above 1%. It is highly likely that following Japan’s negative Q2 GDP print the nation may be entering its third recession since 2012. And two of the highly vaunted BRIC economies, Russia and Brazil, are shrinking as well.

This global deflation and economic stagnation isn’t easily remedied. China cut its reserve requirement ratio and interest rates again this week; but the People’s Bank of China has done so five times since November of 2014 to no avail. It’s becoming apparent: China has lost command and control of their command and controlled markets and economy.

DEFLATION.................Central Baksters Worse NIGHTMARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

A Cautionary History of US Monetary Tightening

Fed rates hikes usually end in disaster, history shows

Fed always underestimates the danger to jobs, output and stability
By J. Bradford DeLong

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration

BERKELEY – The US Federal Reserve has embarked on an effort to tighten monetary policy four times in the past four decades. On every one of these occasions, the effort triggered processes that reduced employment and output far more than the Fed’s staff had anticipated. As the Fed prepares to tighten monetary policy once again, an examination of this history – and of the current state of the economy – suggests that the United States is about to enter dangerous territory.

Between 1979 and 1982, then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker changed the authorities’ approach to monetary policy. His expectation was that by controlling the amount of money in circulation, the Fed could bring about larger reductions in inflation with smaller increases in idle capacity and unemployment than what traditional Keynesian models predicted.

Unfortunately for the Fed – and for the American economy – the Keynesian models turned out to be accurate; their forecasts of the costs of disinflation were dead on. Furthermore, this period of monetary tightening had unexpected consequences; financial institutions like Citicorp found that only regulatory forbearance saved them from having to declare bankruptcy, and much of Latin America was plunged into a depression that lasted more than five years.

Then, between 1988 and 1990, another round of monetary tightening under Alan Greenspan ravaged the balance sheets of the country’s savings and loan associations, which were overleveraged, undercapitalized, and already struggling to survive. To prevent the subsequent recession from worsening, the federal government was forced to bail out insolvent institutions. State governments were on the hook, too: Texas spent the equivalent of three months of total state income to rescue its S&Ls and their depositors. 

And to get things Started........................Janet Yellen and HER ""Band of Fools"" at the FED are going to RAISE Rates at least ONCE this YEAR. That should do at least 2 Things, Strengthen the Dollar and Raise Rates at the Short End of the Yield Curve and Really Screw things UP because with the Threat of ""Global DEFLATION,"" International Investors will flock to the Long END of U.S. Treasuries flattening the Yield Curve BIG TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And THIS Ugly Story Will Really Accelerate the Collapse of the Dollar Carry Trade Aggressively Escalate the Currency Crisis in ""Emerging Markets"" and Further Depress Their Economies leading to ""RECESSION"" because of Capital Outflows and Collapsing Exports........................In FACT, The ""Global Supply CHAIN"" for Manufacturing especially in Asia IS about to Repeat 2008.........................AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

Most emerging Asian currencies down

SINGAPORE: Most emerging Asian currencies slid on Monday and were set to post steep monthly losses as top US. Federal Reserve officials left the door open for an interest rate hike. in September and Chinese stocks tumbled again.

South Korea's won fell as foreign investors continued to sell local stocks.

Foreign investors sold the Indonesian rupiah, while the Singapore dollar skidded with hedge funds selling.

Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, speaking at the central bank' conference in Wyoming, said recent volatility in global markets quickly could ease and possibly pave the way for a rate hike.

Chinese stocks tumbled ahead of official factory activity data on Tuesday which is likely to deepen fears of a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

Activity in China's manufacturing sector in August likely shrank at its fastest pace in three years, a Reuters poll showed.

"Jitters over emerging Asian currencies may persist unless we see a recovery in Chinese data, given doubts over China's ability to support the economy," said Jeong My-young, Samsung Futures' research head in Seoul.

Investors are also awaiting key U.S. economic data later this week including August nonfarm payrolls for clues on the timing of U.S. tightening.

US rate hike to have adverse effects on Korea
By Choi Kyong-ae

The planned U.S. rate increase will give Korea reduced leeway in cutting rates to support growth, and will accelerate capital outflow from the open economy, a government report said Sunday.

The won's weakness against the dollar will not help Korean exporters as much as expected because of the lackluster global economic recovery, according to a National Assembly Budget Office economic report.

"If the Federal Reserve raises its rate as early as September, Korea's central bank will have grave difficulty in lowering its key rate further or at least maintaining the current level to help the flagging economy," the report said.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) has been under growing pressure to cut the benchmark rate further to stimulate spending. But consumption has not rebounded and growth has slowed despite four rate cuts and the government's stimulus packages since August last year, and an extra budget.

Analysts say a rate cut would be the last resort this year for the struggling Korean economy if the extra spending remains ineffective.

The BOK is maintaining its rate at an all-time low of 1.5 percent. In July, the central bank cut its growth outlook to 2.8 percent this year from its April forecast of 3.1 percent. 

Data indicates faster foreign capital outflow from China

Foreign investors are pulling funds out of China at a quicker pace and the Aug. 11 devaluation of the Chinese currency has exacerbated the situation, according to Beijing's Economic Observer.

China has seen an outflow of foreign capital in the past two years, as indicated by a 30.9% annual decline of the percentage of foreign funds used in fixed-asset investment in the country between January and June, the paper said.

Moreover, foreign currency-denominated assets held by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) shrank by a record 308 billion yuan (US$48.3 billion) in July, the report added.

The declines came after China recorded a decade of double-digit growth of foreign capital in fixed-asset investment, mainly in the manufacturing sector, allowing the country to become the world's largest exporter of manufactured goods.

Zhang Yong, a partner at Qiming Venture Partners, added that the rally in the Chinese stock market also attracted investors away from investment projects.

These developments took place even though China further opened up various sectors to foreign investors in April, when the government updated its list of restrictions on foreign investment in different industries.

Meanwhile, the PBOC's Aug. 11 move to devalue the renminbi by introducing a more market-oriented mechanism to set the daily reference price, also known as the mid-price for the currency trade, increased expectation of the Chinese currency's further depreciation, the paper said.

Tan Min Lan, the Asia-Pacific region head of the chief investment office at UBS Wealth Management, said the change to the mid-price mechanism has been viewed as a sign that the Chinese economy is deteriorating. If that is the case, Tan said, the possible depreciation of the yuan can create pressure on other currencies in the region, which will prompt foreign investors pull more funds out of the region.

Chinese Economy Slowdown: The Really Worry is Debt
By Major Tian

Slow growth in the Chinese economy will put pressure on local governments’ ability to repay their debts.

In the past few months, a series of developments in the Chinese economy have rattled global investors, and sent ripples of shockwaves across markets throughout the world.

The “forget-about-Greece-China-is-the-real-threat” rhetoric has therefore spread quickly among the Western media. “Whatever you might think [about the Chinese economy], it’s worse,” said Jim Chanos, a well-known short seller and a long-time China bear, in a CNBC interview earlier this month.

As growth continues to slow down in the world’s second-largest economy, China is at the crossroads: it has to prop up the economy the old-fashioned way and also push forward structural reforms to lead the country onto another growth trajectory. In this context, some policy changes can be interpreted drastically differently by observers, and many may be confused about the true intentions of those policy moves.

One example is the debate over the central bank’s (People Bank of China, or PBOC) recent decision to reform the mid-point determination mechanism of the RMB exchange rate, which resulted in the sharpest drop of the currency’s value in almost two decades. Critics believe that the PBOC intentionally devalued the RMB to boost anemic exports; others argue that while the timing is not convenient, the central bank needs to use the window (when conservatives may agree to the reform for the sake of supporting growth) to push forward its agenda.

To make  sense of where the Chinese economy is and the implications of the central government’s policy moves, we speak with Li Wei, Professor of Economics at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, to get his views on some of these hot button issues.

A Double-edged Sword 

Capital flight in Russia reached record $150 bn in 2014, expert

The economic sanctions against Russia are very effective: trade with EU dropped by a third, and capital flight reached $150 bn, National Institute for Strategic Studies and presidential adviser Volodymyr Horbulin writes in an article for DT.UA Aug. 31.

 “No matter how Kremlin wants to persuade the Russians in the opposite, the sanctions are biting. There is no access to cheap western credits, the ruble has plummeted and the economic situation remains bad. This is the price Putin has to pay for invading Ukraine and flouting international laws,” the expert says.

The situation in Russia will aggravate further as the country’s economy continues to depend on the falling oil prices.

Putin’s attempts to return Russian tycoons money to the country have failed, with the capital outflow standing at a record $150 bn in 2014.

Folks, THIS "IS" going to END Very Badly.............So make SURE You TELL a Friend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Millions Facing a Hefty Increase in Medicare Premiums in 2016
By Eric Pianin

Nearly a third of the roughly 50 million elderly Americans who depend on Medicare for their physician care and other health services could see their premiums jump by 52 percent or more next year. That’s because of a quirk in the law that punishes wealthier beneficiaries and others any time the Social Security Administration fails to boost the annual cost of living adjustment.

While Congress is largely focused on addressing looming shortfalls in the Social Security Disability Insurance program, a financial time-bomb of sorts may go off in 2016 because of the festering premium problem in Medicare Part B – the premium-based government health insurance program that covers seniors’ visits to doctors and other health care providers, out-patient care and durable medical equipment.

Unless Congress or Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell intervenes, an estimated 15 million seniors, first-time beneficiaries or those currently claiming dual Medicare and Medicaid coverage will see their premiums jump from $104.90 per month to $159.30 for individuals, according to an analysis by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Higher-income couples would pay multiples of that increase.

A spokesperson for the Centers on Medicare and Medicaid Services on Friday confirmed that the premium hike is in the works, although a final decision won’t be made until later this year. While approximately 70 percent of Medicare beneficiaries “are expected not to see a premium increase in 2016,” he stressed, “the remaining 30 percent of beneficiaries would pay a higher premium based on this projection.”

CMS is exploring its options for finding a way to blunt the effect of the major premium increase next year, although officials say the federal agency does not have authority to extend beyond what the law calls for.

No Social Security COLA in 2016: Higher Medicare Premiums for Your Clients

Center for Retirement Research points out that some retirees will bear the brunt of higher Medicare Part B premiums

Your retired clients’ Medicare Part B premiums have remained at the same level in 2015 as they were in 2014, but absent some political moves in Washington, that will change in 2016. 

According to an August paper from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Part B premiums for higher-income Americans are scheduled to rise significantly in 2016. That’s because it appears there will be no cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients in 2016—for only the third time in the past 40 years.

Lower inflation and no 2016 COLA for Social Security recipients will cause a “flap in the Medicare program” next year, point out CRR authors Alicia Munnell and Anqi Chen, because by law, the cost of higher Medicare Part B premiums cannot be passed on to most beneficiaries — about 70%, they say, who are considered “held harmless” on premiums — when they do not get a raise in their overall Social Security benefits.

To begin, why won’t there be a COLA for Social Security recipients next year? Any adjustment in Social Security benefits as of Jan. 1 of each year is based on comparing CPI-W in the third quarter of the preceding year (2015 in this case) with the CPI in the prior year’s (2014 in this case) third quarter. The CPI in 2015’s third quarter is, so far, below 2014’s third-quarter inflation, and thus no COLA. 

Get Ready, Because Big Changes Are Coming to Obamacare in 2016
By Sean Williams

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, may have gone into effect with the flip of the calendar on Jan. 1, 2014, but it remains a work in progress for much of America, which is still acquainting itself with the new health law.

Controversial, but working?
Obamacare represents a vast departure from the previous way consumers searched and paid for health insurance, as well as the method by which insurers picked their members. Under Obamacare consumers shop for health insurance in transparent exchanges that are designed to make purchasing decisions easier to understand. The exchanges are also in place to help spur competition among insurers, hopefully pushing premium prices down for the consumer, or at the very least curbing premium inflation. Lastly, new minimum plan benefit requirements were implemented, and insurers were told they could no longer deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions.

Source: Covered California.

The idea was radical, but thus far it appears to be paying off for millions of Americans. Statistics from the Department of Health and Human Services following the end of 2014-2015's open enrollment period show that more than 11 million Americans signed up for health insurance, many of whom qualified for subsidies to make their monthly payments more affordable. Furthermore, a recent study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that the uninsured rate in the U.S. (including Medicare enrollees) had dropped to 9.2% in the first quarter, the first time in history the uninsured rate in the U.S. was in the single-digits.

Big changes are coming to Obamacare in 2016
But Obamacare as a law is constantly evolving, whether or not you realize it. As we move toward the end of the year, it's important you're aware of three big changes that are coming to Obamacare in 2016.

1. The minimum penalty for individual mandate non-compliance is going up a lot.
The first big change will be particularly noticeable for those who remain uninsured, as the penalty for non-compliance with the individual mandate will soar from its 2015 levels (after soaring in 2015 from 2014 levels).

Taxpayers who didn't have health insurance in 2014 and who didn't qualify for one of more than a dozen exemptions were required to pay the greater of $95 or 1% of their modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI. In 2015 this penalty rose to the greater of $325 or 2% of MAGI. Next year consumers who choose not to purchase health insurance can expect a penalty that's the greater of $695 or 2.5% of MAGI. For a family the penalty could top out at $2,085! Beyond 2016 the minimum penalty will increase in line with the rate of inflation.

Source: Flickr use Reynermedia.

The individual mandate penalty was put in place to coerce holdouts to enroll for health insurance, with a specific focus on healthier young adults, whose premium payments are needed to help offset the higher costs associated with insuring people with pre-existing conditions. However, the jury is still out on whether or not the individual mandate penalty will do the trick. Even in 2016 the penalty will still likely be half or less of the roughly $3,700 average annual cost consumers paid in 2015 if they purchased a silver-tier plan without a subsidy. For many individuals it's just cheaper to remain uninsured.

3. Insurers are set to enact their largest premium rate hikes since Obamacare went into effect.
The Affordable Care Act, by name, is meant to make access to medical care affordable for as many Americans as possible. In 2016 that could change for the worse. 

Plan for cuts in disability benefits, but hope for the best
By Robert Powell, Special to USA TODAY

The future for Medicare and Social Security might not look bright at the moment, but it’s particularly bleak for the government’s disability insurance program.

According to the Social Security trustees’ report released last month, the disability insurance trust fund will run out money in 2016 and it needs immediate attention. In the absence of any attention, millions of Americans will receive an automatic 19% reduction in their Social Security disability benefits in the fourth quarter of 2016. In 2015, the average Social Security disability insurance benefit amount was $1,165 per month, but beneficiaries can receive  up to $2,663,

Why the cuts? Social Security is precluded from spending money it doesn’t have, according to a recent report by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College; benefits must be in accord with disability insurance payroll tax revenues.

To be fair, most experts don’t expect lawmakers in Washington, D.C., to cut Social Security disability insurance benefits. “The reality of the situation is that Social Security disability insurance benefits play a vitally important role in the lives of just under 11 million people in this country today, nearly 9 million disabled workers, along with an additional 2 million family members, including 1.7 million children,” says Kurt Czarnowski, a principal with Czarnowski Consulting in Norfolk, Mass.

Social Security disability insurance pays benefits to you and certain members of your family if you are “insured,” meaning that you worked long enough and paid Social Security taxes, according to the Social Security Administration’s website.

So what’s a person to do?

Don’t panic just yet. For his part, Czarnowski predicts there’ll be a re-adjustment of the payroll tax rate between the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and the disability insurance (DI) funds, “just as has occurred on numerous occasions in the past.”

Hatch Statement on CBO’s Long-Term Budget Outlook

 Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said today’s Congressional Budget Office’s long-term budget outlook further underscores the need for Congress to take up meaningful structural reforms to the nation’s entitlement programs – the greatest drivers of U.S. debt.

“This report further underscores the grave fiscal challenges plaguing the nation’s entitlement programs,” said Hatch. “As CBO makes clear, America’s fiscal path is unsustainable. Our social safety net is coming apart at the seams and unless Congress acts to implement concrete, structural changes to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, they won’t be there for future generations. The status quo is unacceptable. If we want to guarantee the solvency of these programs for our children and grandchildren, then we must act and we must act now.”

Today’s report detailed how spending for Social Security and the federal government’s major health care entitlement programs including Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies for health insurance purchased through the exchanges created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) are driving unsustainable spending growth that will cause the nation’s debt and deficits to rise over time to amounts, as a share of our economy, not seen since the years surrounding World War II.

CBO projects that under current law, over the next 10 years growth in federal spending, driven by growth in entitlement spending, will outstrip growth in revenues, leading once again to deficits above $1 trillion and federal debt as a share of the economy at levels not seen since the years surrounding World War II.

According to CBO:  “Such high and rising debt would have serious negative consequences both for the economy and for the federal budget.”

Recognizing the fiscal challenges facing Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, Hatch has long fought to fix the nation’s broken entitlement programs to guarantee their long-term solvency for generations to come.

This Congress, Hatch has teamed up with his House counterparts to call on the disability community and other interested stakeholders to bring ideas to the table on how best to address the impending depletion of reserves in the Social Security’s Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund.  He has introduced a variety of bills designed to improve the administration and integrity of the DI program and has put forward five common-sense, bipartisan Medicare reforms as means of both shoring up Medicare for seniors and for bringing down the nation’s debt. 

Concord Coalition: Updated Budget Projections Underscore Need for Presidential Hopefuls to Address Growing Debt

WASHINGTON, Aug. 25, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Concord Coalition said today that updated projections on the federal budget reinforce the need for presidential candidates in both parties to explain how they would curb the growth of the national debt over the next decade and beyond.

"Even with declining short-term deficits and slowing health care costs, Washington clearly remains on an unsustainable fiscal path," says Robert L. Bixby, Concord's executive director. "The federal debt is already quite high by historical standards, and the new projections confirm that Washington must make fundamental policy changes to avoid adding $7 trillion -- and perhaps much more -- to the federal debt over the next 10 years. The presidential candidates need to let voters know what they intend to do about that if elected."

In its report today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) offers new 10-year baseline projections for the nation's spending programs and revenue collection, along with an updated economic outlook. Stronger-than-expected revenues will help reduce this year's deficit to $426 billion (2.4 percent of GDP), an improvement of $59 billion (0.4 percent of GDP).

Overall, however, the report says the budget outlook for this period "does not differ substantially" from what CBO projected in March. Baseline projections are based on current law and do not take into account deficit-increasing policies that tend to get passed on a yearly basis -- like the extension of numerous targeted tax breaks.

The latest report again highlights the growing pressures on the federal budget, largely as the result of an aging population, rising health care costs, and soaring interest payments on the debt in the years ahead. Social Security, the major health care programs and interest payments are all projected to grow as a share of the economy while all other programs are projected to shrink.

In total, CBO projects that federal spending will rise from 20.6 percent of GDP in 2015 to 22.0 percent of GDP by 2025 while revenues tick up just slightly, from 18.2 percent of GDP to 18.3 percent.

Under current law, CBO says, deficits over the next decade could push federal debt held by the public to 77 percent of GDP -- up from 74 percent now, and roughly twice the average level over the past five decades.

"The structural mismatch between the federal government's spending and tax policies is made abundantly clear in CBO's report," Bixby says. "There are no mysteries here for anyone who is open to looking at the basic facts."

There were earlier red flags this summer when the CBO released its Long-Term Budget Outlook and the trustees of Medicare and Social Security issued their annual reports on those two troubled programs.

The Long-Term Outlook warned of even greater fiscal difficulties beyond 2025 unless Washington pursues extensive changes well before then. The trustees reiterated that Medicare and Social Security should be repaired soon, with particularly urgent concerns about the Disability Insurance Trust Fund running dry next year.

The updated CBO projections come as President Obama and Congress prepare to square off over a number of pressing fiscal deadlines.

Government agency funding will run out on Oct. 1, forcing a disruptive shutdown absent agreement on appropriations for Fiscal Year 2016. By the end of October, lawmakers will need to tackle the long-term shortfall facing the Highway Trust Fund. Soon after that, the statutory debt limit will need to be raised. Before the end of the year lawmakers will also have to decide whether to extend a number of expired tax breaks and how to make up the lost revenue, if at all.

Today CBO also released a report on the debt limit, saying that the special measures being used by the Treasury to avoid breaching the limit would be exhausted sometime between mid-November and early December. The Concord Coalition has long urged Congress to avoid unnecessary brinksmanship by raising the debt limit sooner rather than later.

"What used to be 'regular order' in the congressional budget process has turned into 'regular chaos.' Meanwhile, the broad picture remains one in which entitlement programs and interest payments will continue rising while other spending -- in other domestic as well as defense programs -- shrinks substantially as a share of the economy," Bixby said. "Moreover, government revenue from our inefficient tax system would fall farther and farther behind federal spending. That's not the path to national strength, growth and prosperity. And it certainly isn't fair to our children and future generations."

The Big Social Security Disconnect In Americans' Retirement Plans
By Janet Novack
Forbes Staff

No wonder Americans are so worried about retirement. A new survey shows 80% of them are planning to rely on Social Security benefits “substantially” or “somewhat” in retirement (or already do so).  But only 42% are “very” or “somewhat” confident in the program’s future.

Compounding this uncertainty: widespread confusion about what the looming exhaustion of the Social Security Trust funds really means.  According to the Social Security Trustees’ most recent projections issued last month, the combined trust funds (those paying for both old age and disability benefits) will be exhausted in 2034, at which point  Social Security taxes coming into the Treasury will be enough to pay only 79% of promised benefits. Yet 19% of those surveyed thought Social Security would be unable to pay any benefits at all after trust fund exhaustion and 54% admitted they had no idea what the impact would be. Just 26% knew that the program would be able to pay some, but not all, benefits.

The survey of 1,200 adults (including 483 who are already retired) was commissioned by AARP, the 38 million member seniors’ lobby, to mark the 80th anniversary of the retirement program, which President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed into law on August 14th, 1935.  It was conducted for AARP in June via phone by GfK Roper Public Affairs.

AARP asked some of the same questions on Social Security’s 60th, 70th and 75th anniversaries, providing points of comparison. For example, in its surveys, confidence in Social Security reached a low in 2010, when only 35% said they were very or somewhat confident in its future.

Along with confidence, support for tax increases to protect future benefits has risen. In the current survey, 68% of still working adults agreed somewhat or completely with the statement: “I would be willing to contribute more to Social Security to make sure it will be there for me when I retire.”  That’s up from 60% in 2010 and 54% in 2005.

One notable change is in the percentage of young adults who expect to rely “substantially” or “somewhat” on Social Security during their own retirements. In the current survey, 75% of those aged 18 to 29 said they expected to rely on the government program, up from 62% in 2010. That mimics the results of an April poll by Gallup, which found that the share of young workers saying Social Security will be a big part of their retirement income has doubled over the past decade.But—and here’s that disconnect again—young people saying they expect to rely on Social Security isn’t the same thing as being confident it will be there for them. Some 55% of those aged 18 to 29 agreed completely or somewhat with the statement “Social Security won’t be there when I’m ready to retire.” Still, they’re not ready to abandon the program; 81% of young adults said they’d be willing to pay more to make sure it is there for them.

Why California quivers when stocks dive

Hopes that U.S. stocks had finally rebounded from a brutal week faded quickly Tuesday as gains suddenly morphed into losses near the close of the market. And with that stunning downturn came increased concerns about what today will bring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which at one point was up more than 200 points for the day — after suffering its eighth worst day ever the day before — dropped precipitously, ending down 205 points.

The Nasdaq composite, which was trading more than 2 percent higher for the day, dropped 19.76 points, or 0.4 percent.

If there’s an epicenter to all of this, it’s in Bejing, where investors are witnessing a spiraling of the Chinese stock market and a slowing of the nation’s economy.

China’s central bank responded on Tuesday by cutting its benchmark interest rate for the fifth time since November, and giving license to its banks to lend more money. Nevertheless, the primary Shanghai share index dropped 7.6 percent on Tuesday, reaching its lowest level in 2015.

Financial managers are quick to remind investors in times like these that market corrections are inevitable. In this case, one may even say it’s overdue, given that the nation has seen an uninterrupted bull market for six years.

According to a recent report by Deutsche Bank, it has been nearly 1,000 trading days since the market had its last correction. That’s more than double the average length of time it usually takes for such things to occur.

Nevertheless, corrections, no matter how healthy they may be, take their toll — especially in places like California.

Recovering U.S. State Budgets Run Headlong Into Stock Declines

The gradual recovery of U.S. state budgets, which collectively anticipated 3.1 percent more revenue this year, may be reversed by stock market declines that imperil income taxes, their largest source of money.

Since 2011, states have been restoring education, health care and other programs slashed during the recession, and the trend was forecast to continue this year, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers in Washington.

Monday’s 3.9 percent decrease in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, continuing the index’s worst downturn since the financial crisis in 2009, spells trouble for states like California whose reliance on capital-gains taxes makes them vulnerable to swings in equity markets. The market correction comes after a rout in oil prices that has stung states including Alaska and Texas that rely on revenue from petroleum production.

Why We Can’t Handle A Stocks Bear Market - State Budgets Will Implode
By: John Rubino

Back when society’s balance sheet was reasonably solid, the occasional bear market was no big deal. A 20% drop in the average S&P 500 stock would scare investors and lead to slight declines in consumer spending and government capital gains tax revenue, but the overall economy would barely notice such a minor speed bump.

But that was then. Like a person with an impaired immune system, today’s developed world is so highly leveraged that a shock of any kind risks catastrophic complications. Which is why governments and central banks now meet every incipient crisis with quick infusions of newly-created cash and lower interest rates. We can’t risk letting markets be markets any more.

Social Security Medicare!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Disability Trust Fund!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Obamacare........................America, YOU Can't AFFORD this ""LIBERAL"" Screw JOB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Municipal Debt...............................The Coming CORRECTION Will Finish what 2008 Started!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Public Pensions.........................Taxpayers of America YOUR States Will try and MAKE You PAY.................Be Very Afraid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The American MIDDLE Class.........................Has BEEN Totally SCREWED by Obamanomics!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DEMOGRAPHICS.......................................Comes into PLAY BIG Time in the 2H of this DECADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

U.S. DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

If You Need to Reduce Risk, Do it Now
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
August 31, 2015

The single most important thing for investors to understand here is how current market conditions differ from those that existed through the majority of the market advance of recent years. The difference isn’t valuations. On measures that are best correlated with actual subsequent 10-year S&P 500 total returns, the market has advanced from strenuous, to extreme, to obscene overvaluation, largely without consequence.

The difference is that investor risk-preferences have shifted from risk-seeking to risk-aversion. That may not be obvious, but in market cycles across history, the best measure of investor risk preferences is the behavior of market internals, as measured by the uniformity or divergence of market action across a wide range of individual stocks, industries, sectors, and security types, including debt securities of varying creditworthiness.

Our observations on that are not new at all. Extreme overvaluation coupled with deterioration in market internals was the same set of features that allowed us to avoid the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 market collapses. Given our success in prior cycles, why did we stumble in the advancing half of this one? The fact is that in 2009, I insisted on stress-testing our methods of classifying market return/risk profiles against Depression-era data, setting off a sequence of inadvertent but related challenges in the recent cycle, which we fully addressed last year. I’ve detailed the central lessons in nearly every weekly comment since mid-2014. The full narrative is detailed in our 2015 Annual Report. As I observed in the accompanying letter:

If there is a single lesson to be learned from the period since 2009, it is not a lesson about the irrelevance of valuations, nor about the omnipotence of the Federal Reserve. Rather, it is a lesson about the importance of investor attitudes toward risk, and the effectiveness of measuring those preferences directly through the broad uniformity or divergence of individual stocks, industries, sectors, and security types. In prior market cycles, the emergence of extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions was typically accompanied or closely followed by deterioration in market internals. In the face of Fed induced yield-seeking speculation, one needed to wait until market internals deteriorated explicitly. When rich valuations are coupled with deterioration in market internals, overvaluation that previously seemed irrelevant has often transformed into sudden and vertical market losses.

If you review my concerns in recent years, prior to mid-2014, you’ll notice that they focused on the extreme nature of the “overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome” that had emerged. Examining these syndromes across history, these overextended conditions were typically accompanied or quickly followed by deterioration in market internals, and then by vertical air-pockets, panics or crashes. Because of that regularity (which was picked up by the methods that emerged from our stress-testing efforts), we shifted immediately to a defensive outlook when those overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes emerged. The problem, in this cycle, was that the Fed aggressively and intentionally encouraged persistent yield-seeking speculation regardless of valuation extremes. One needed to wait until market internals deteriorated explicitly before taking a hard-negative outlook on the market – a requirement (“overlay”) that we imposed on our methods last year. 

The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be Fricking BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Falling asset prices could cause recession: Boockvar
By Tom DiChristopher   

Investors could be heading into another recession caused by falling asset prices, analyst Peter Boockvar said Monday.

"Before the late '90s, a recession would then cause a bear market, but the last two recessions were caused by declines in asset prices. I'm afraid this is going to be the same thing the third time," the Lindsey Group's chief market analyst told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The last two recessions occurred between December 2007 and June 2009 following the subprime mortgage and financial crises, and in 2001 following the dotcom bubble.

Boockvar made his comments on the final day of one of the most volatile months for stocks on record. While the major U.S. averages ended last week positive, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are tracking for their worst month since May 2012, rocked by concerns over fallout from a slowdown in China.

Nothing Can STOP the 2015 ""GLOBAL RECESSION"".......................NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

When the ""GREAT Rest"" comes to America it WILL Lead to the Greatest Cycle of WEALTH Destruction in the History of MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sunday, August 30, 2015

I'll say it AGAIN....................""The Chinese Economy "IS" the Biggest FRAUD on Planet EARTH""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

China Banks to Have 'Negative' Growth: Mizuho's Antos
8:05 PM PDT
August 30, 2015

Jim Antos, an analyst at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, talks about China's banks. China Construction Bank Corp. joined the club of big Chinese banks reporting zero profit growth and rising bad loans as the government struggles to prop up the economy. Antos speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "Trending Business." 

Chinese Stocks Slump After "Arrest-Fest", Yuan Strengthens Most In 9 Months, Goldman Cuts Outlook

Update: So much for the "no more intervention" Since the government bailout fund has run dry of money, the brokerages have to step up - CHINA SAID TO ORDER BROKERAGES TO BOOST STOCK MARKET SUPPORT

A busy weekend in Asia was dominated by mayhem in Malaysia, and witch-huntery in China. Chinese authorities began a wide-scale crackdown on rumor-mongerers, arrested journalists, and even detained a regulator for insider trading, as they lifted loan caps on the banking system at the same as withdrawing (verbally) support for the stock market. China strengthen the Yuan fix by 0.15% to 6.3893 - this is the biggest 2-day strengthening of the Yuan fix since Nov 2014. Then just to rub some more salt in the wounds, Goldman cut China growth expectations to 6.4% and 6.1% respectively for the next 2 years. Chinese stocks are opening modestly lower (SHCOMP -3.3%).

Then Goldman slahes China growth...


A “double-dip” in China’s growth in 2015...

China’s economic growth was very weak in early 2015, reflecting a combination of slowing money/credit growth, reform-driven fiscal tightening, and an appreciating CNY, among other factors. Policy easing starting in March seemed to help revive growth in May and especially June. But growth has slowed anew in July and August, prompting market and policymaker concerns and a further spate of easing measures. We retain our 2015 real GDP growth forecast of 6.8%, but note that alternative indicators of activity suggest a sharper slowdown, and mark down our 2016/17/18 forecasts to 6.4%/6.1%/5.8% respectively from 6.7%/6.5%/6.2% previously. We now expect short-term interest rates to fall further, to 1.5% by end-2016 (from 2.25% previously). 

Asia ""LAB RATS""..........................It's ALL about ASIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

China Waves

Korean Economy Can Fall into ‘Triple Dip’ Recession Due to Economic Crisis in China
31 August 2015 - 11:45am
By Jung Suk-yee

Although the South Korean economy is getting out of the aftereffects of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) scare, it is still suffering from troubles both at home and abroad.

As the financial crisis, which was triggered by the U.S. in 2008, has traveled through Europe to China, there is a growing anxiety in the global financial market. Also, the global trade volume has declined, adverse affecting Korea, which is heavily dependent on exports. Although the fiscal and currency authorities are focusing on boosting the domestic market by lowering the base interest rate to an all-time low level at 1.5 percent, making up a revised supplementary budget of 11.5 trillion won (US$9.77 billion), and conducting early budget executions, the Korean economy is recovering at a slow pace. There are only unfavorable factors in the economy, which has a long way to go.

According to officials from the Ministry of Strategy and Finance and the Bank of Korea, and several economists on Aug. 30, the Korean economy will be beleaguered in the second half of this year due to the economic crisis in China, the increase in interest rates in the U.S., sluggish exports, and slow internal recovery rates. There are only a few favorable factors – the fact that the economy is escaping from the stagnation of domestic consumption, which was caused by the emergence of MERS, and market expectations that the economy next year will be better than this year.

Currently, China is a hot issue for the Korean economy. Some have named a “September Crisis” due to unfavorable conditions in China. It is a comfort that experts say with one voice that “it is not the crisis” when there is concern over a possible crisis.

However, everyone should remain vigilant. According to a report called “Will the Korean Economy Fall in Triple Dip Recession?” published by Hyundai Research Institute on that day, Korea will see a decrease in total exports by more than 4 percentage points and in the economic growth rate by more than 1 percentage point, when China suffers an economic crisis, like less than 5 percent of the annual economic growth rate next year under the same conditions. It says that the country will be directly hit by China’s economic depression as its total exports to China, including Hong Kong, account for 30.1 percent. 

Japan inflation flat, household spending slips in blow to Abenomics
AFP Tokyo

Japanese inflation fell back to zero in July while household spending dropped again, official data showed on Friday, as a slowdown in China threatens Japan's already precarious economic picture.

The disappointing data are sure to stoke speculation that the central bank would be forced to unleash more stimulus later this year to counter a downturn in the world's number-three economy, which contracted in the April-June quarter.

On Friday, government data showed core inflation, excluding volatile fresh food prices, was flat year-on-year, as lower fuel and other energy costs weighed on Tokyo's battle to push up prices.

Household spending also fell 0.2 percent in July after declining 2.0 percent in the previous month, the ministry said.

The two monthly drops followed a strong rise of 4.8 percent in May that offered some hope for spending after consumers snapped their wallets shut in the wake of a sales tax hike last year.

The consumption levy rise -- Japan's first in 17 years -- was aimed at taming a huge national debt but it slammed the brakes on consumer spending and pushed the economy into a brief recession.

While Japan crawled out of the red in the last quarter of 2014, the economy turned negative again with a 0.4 percent contraction in the second quarter due to a slowdown in China, weak consumer spending at home and slowing exports after two consecutive quarters of growth.

Huge north Asian economies just posted some grim industrial numbers
By David Scutt

Japanese industrial output slipped in July with the government reporting a decline of 0.6%.

The figure was below the 1.1% increase registered in June and expectations for a further expansion of 0.1%. 

South Korean industrial production -3.3% vs. -1.0% forecast - Industrial production in South Korea fell more-than-expected last month, official data showed on Sunday.

In a report, Korea National Statistical Office said that South Korean Industrial Production fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -3.3%, from 1.4% in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from 1.2%.

Analysts had expected South Korean Industrial Production to fall to -1.0% last month. 

S. Korea's industrial output dips 0.5 pct on weak exports in July

South Korea's industrial output edged down in July as weak exports dented demand for electronic parts and machinery and equipment, a government report showed Monday.
According to the report by Statistics Korea, production in the mining, manufacturing, gas and electricity industries backtracked 0.5 percent last month from June. The decrease comes just a month after production figures rebounded 2.5 percent in June, following three straight months of minus growth from March through May.
Compared with a year earlier, industrial production was down 3.3 percent.
"Weak exports had a direct impact on the output of electronic parts, and equipment that go into ships, as well as a wide range of industrial goods, that offset solid gains in production of autos and miscellaneous transportation products," said Jeon Baek-geun, director of the short-term industrial statistics division.
In July, exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy contracted 3.4 percent on year to $46.57 billion. This is a 0.1 percent fall from the month before.

The official said that automobile production rose 4.9 percent last month from June.
Production in the service sector, a key part of the economy, on the other hand, expanded 1.7 percent from June and rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier, the report showed.
"There is a clear indication that the fallout of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome receded in July, with local eateries and lodging businesses posting 6.9 percent gains compared with the month before," Jeon said.
MERS, first confirmed on May 20, killed 36 people out of 186 infected. No new cases of the respiratory illness have been confirmed since July 4.

Kyle Bass Japan....................Abenomics HAS FAILED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

*****South Korea.........................""OH CRAP""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NOTHING Can STOP the 2015 ""GLOBAL RECESSION""......................NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!! 
What If 2008 Crisis Comes Around Again?
By Clive Crook

By the end of the week, stocks, currencies and commodity prices weren't crashing any longer but financial markets were far from settled. Over the past 10 days, markets have plummeted, paused, recovered and fallen again. There's little sign the anxiety is lifting.

Until recently investors had been preoccupied with the weakness of the post-2008 recovery. Now some are asking whether 2008 might come round again. It's an especially disturbing possibility because, on the face of it, the policy options for responding to another slump are fewer than last time. Governments have run big budget deficits to support demand, so there's less so-called fiscal space for a new round of stimulus, or so the thinking goes. Interest rates are still at zero, and even the advocates of quantitative easing recognize that it ran into diminishing returns. What's left?

Policy makers -- in the U.S and Europe anyway -- probably won't have to answer that question any time soon. From time to time, financial markets are volatile; it's what they do. A spell of turbulence shouldn't provoke panic. The admittedly tepid expansion will most likely continue.

Financial systems aren't as strong as they should be, but they're stronger than before. Banks have built up capital. Governments have filled some of the regulatory holes. Underlying financial fissures (think subprime lending) don't seem as threatening. There's less reason than before to think that bad financial surprises might have huge systemic consequences.

Yet just suppose. The weaknesses that collapsed the global economy in 2008 were easier to see in hindsight than in real time. Doubtless the same will be true again. If you stress-test the optimistic scenario, what do you find? What if the mood of financial alarm persists and worsens; there's a renewed flight to safety in financial markets; investment spending weakens even more and consumer spending follows it down; and unsuspected weaknesses in the financial system announce themselves. What then?

The obstacles to effective remedies would be formidable -- but more political, in fact, than economic.

The U.S. and the euro area could safely use fiscal stimulus again if they chose to. The proof is that long-term interest rates are low, inflation expectations well suppressed, and public-debt burdens supportable. Under the conditions of our thought-experiment, fiscal stimulus might even be debt-reducing, because it would support growth, and if the economy grows faster than the public debt, the ratio of debt to output falls. 

READ FOLKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be FUCKING BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To ALL ""LAB RATS"" Reading HERE..........................Be Very Afraid of what ""BIG Government"" IS" Cooking UP for YOU to EAT in the Coming Months so YOU'LL be Ready for 2016 and the HELL that WILL Spread around the World over the next 4 YEARS ending with the MOST Violent WAR Man has EVER Witnessed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have said several times here that for the most part, Humans can pretty much get along with each other no matter what Your Race or Nationality or Religious Beliefs are. What Causes WARS are the ASSHOLES Running ""BIG Government""!!!!!!!!!!!!!  HISTORY.................Like a Clock "IS" Repeating itself Once AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

It's the Inefficiency of ""BIG Government"" and YOUR Dependence on Government  that "IS" Responsible for the HELL that's coming at YOU in the 2H of this DECADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Here's a NEWS Flash....................A Central Government "IS" Really only GOOD at doing JUST a Few Things at ONCE. In FACT, the U.S. Constitution kind of Outlines the Limits at What Government Should be Allowed to DO and ONLY Allowed to DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have WARNED that the Rise of NATIONALISM was going to be ""BIG Government's"" NEXT Move!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I check on Stories at least Once a week to SEE what "IS" being Spread to Stir UP the Anger of People around the World and I'm Telling YOU, It's starting to get REAL Ugly Out there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

READ Folks this SHIT "IS" Happening NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

""***Economic Crisis Nationalism***"" 

There "IS" only ONE Way this ENDS when Nationalism HITS its PEAK.....................""GLOBAL WAR"" and WE ""LAB RATS"" will have Only Ourselves to BLAME because YOU Voted for it ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

SAMPLES of what "IS" Coming at YOU KNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Real Threat of Chinese Nationalism
By John Richard Cookson

On Monday, China’s Shanghai Composite Index dropped 8.5 percent, the largest percentage fall since the financial crisis hit in 2007. Hours earlier it was reported that Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, would not attend a ceremony in China on September 3 marking the seventieth anniversary of the end of World War Two. So far, China’s economic slowdown has been seen as separate from the country’s antagonisms with Japan. Both domestic and antiforeign discontent might concern China watchers, and both might be simmering at the moment, but each registers as its own threat, requiring its own policy response. This is wrong. What connects these issues is the worrying role popular nationalism has taken on in China in the era after Mao Zedong and, more recently, after Deng Xiaoping.

All of this comes on the eve of a state visit by Chinese president Xi Jinping to the United States in September. Xi lands in Washington as the leader who has, according to President Obama, “consolidated power faster and more comprehensively than probably anybody since Deng Xiaoping." No force has been more important in Xi’s power grab than nationalism. He has presided over a country that has stoked patriotic fervor as well as antagonized its neighbors and the United States. The most immediate result of stirring up national sentiment has been to strengthen Xi’s power within the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. With this backstop of popular support, Xi has steadfastly pursued a set of programs, even amid some opposition. For example, his anticorruption purge has continued even after an authority as prominent as former president Jiang Zemin warned against it becoming too ambitious.

Nationalism has worked for Xi. So far, patriotic, mass support has protected him from a strong, public challenge by the military or the party. But nationalism in China has an uncertain and at times combustible relationship with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its leaders in Beijing. In China, street-level, unchecked nationalism—nationalism en masse—is a precarious threat both to the CCP and to regional and global stability overall.

In 2012, Xi took control of a China unthinkable without Deng Xiaoping. By opening up its economy and jettisoning Mao-era programs, China created an average of 10 percent growth per year over the thirty years beginning with 1980. Millions were brought from subsistence living to a point where median income now approaches a “middle-income trap.” As if to acknowledge this change, Xi reiterated his commitment to Deng’s “socialism with Chinese characteristics” shortly after coming to power. 

Xi's Military Parade Fans Unease in Region Already Wary of China
By David Tweed

Chinese military officers stand in a line during a rehearsal ahead of military parade.

As Xi Jinping presides over thousands of goose-stepping troops marching down Beijing’s Changan Avenue -- or “Eternal Peace Street” -- on Thursday, the Chinese president will also proclaim his commitment to the world’s peaceful development.

It’s a message China’s neighbors may find hard to swallow as it flexes its military muscle from the East China Sea to the Indian Ocean. The parade marking the 70th anniversary of World War II’s end -- or “Victory of the Chinese People’s Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War" -- will put on display much of what has frayed nerves throughout the region.

The first-of-its-kind victory celebration will show the world the military might Xi has put at the center of his Chinese Dream for national rejuvenation. The pageant will feature 12,000 soldiers, almost 200 of China’s latest aircraft and mobile ballistic missile launchers capable of delivering nuclear warheads to the continental U.S.

“There is a fairly crude signal to the international community that China is a modern power not to be trifled with,” said Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University in Canberra. “But this doesn’t sit well with the anxiety that already exists in the region.”

The parade offers Xi the first chance since taking power in 2012 to publicly present himself as China’s commander-in-chief. It’ll also give him a chance to distract attention from a slowing economy, a stock-market rout and the warehouse explosions in nearby Tianjin that killed at least 150 earlier this month.

Staying Home 

As markets fall, nationalism rises

Nationalism is a proven strategy for generating popular support while changing the subject.
Aug 31,2015

After the correction comes the nationalism. China’s market meltdown portends a potentially dangerous rise in nationalist sentiment likely to be whipped up by leaders both in China and in the United States. The motives on each side are slightly different: China’s leaders need to shore up the legitimacy of Communist Party rule as growth slows, while Republican presidential candidates need to criticize the Democratic administration on foreign policy without mentioning the Middle East. But there’s an underlying symmetry that’s highly worrisome. On both sides, nationalism is a proven strategy for generating popular support while changing the subject.

On China’s side, the equation is pretty simple. The Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy doesn’t come from communism. It comes from economic growth, which is slowing. Even if the stock market’s losses don’t directly affect most Chinese, the sharp market decline is likely to be felt in the real economy.

If you take the “communism” out of “Chinese Communist Party,” you’re left with the “Chinese” part. The Chinese public is deeply proud of its rise and takes its place in the world very seriously. President Xi Jinping’s slogan of the “Chinese dream” isn’t just a dream of individual welfare but of collective national self-assertion.

Nationalism is the most potent and effective mechanism for creating governmental legitimacy that’s been tried in the modern era. It’s worked almost everywhere on earth - and it works in China, too.|jad|googlenews
It Gets Even Uglier In Canada
By Wolf Richter

The Province of Alberta, the epicenter of the Canadian oil bust, may be sliding into something much worse than a plain-vanilla recession. And it’s not exactly perking up the rest of Canada.

Layoffs are already cascading through the oil patch, as companies are retrenching and adjusting to the new reality. New vehicle sales are plummeting. And home sales are taking a broadside.

In August so far, total home sales in Calgary plunged 28% from a year ago, on flat prices. Condo sales collapsed 39%, with the median price down 8%, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. Year-to-date, total home sales in Calgary are down 25%; condo sales 30%. And those condos that did sell spent 30% longer on the market than condos did a year ago, as sellers hang on by their fingernails to the illusion of wealth, and sales are stalling.

And the Business Barometer Index for all of Canada, which measures the optimism among small businesses, dropped again in August for the third month in a row. An index level between 65 and 70 indicates that the economy is growing at its potential. But now it hit 56.7, the lowest level since April 2009.

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business, which produces the index, blamed the commodity bust but added additional sectors, particularly those that are considered absolutely crucial for the hopefully coming economic recovery in the second half: construction, transportation, and retail.

The index dropped in 7 of 10 provinces, even in British Columbia, which was weighed down by “domestic conditions, coupled with weakening economic prospects in Asia.”

And that feverishly expected rebound of GDP in the second half from recessionary levels in the first half? Small business owners don’t see it. What they see is a continued downturn.

But it’s in Alberta where small business optimism has totally crashed. The Index dropped 3.5 points in August to 40.4, the worst level since March 2009, and just one such step above the historic low of 37, of February 2009, the very bottom of the Financial Crisis. 

CANADA.......................YEP been Covering This TRAIN Wreck Toooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Global economy is heading for a perfect storm
By Gwynne Dyer

LONDON – You know how it is with buses? You wait ages for one, far longer than seems reasonable — and then three arrive all at once. Financial crises are a bit like that too.

The financial crisis everybody in the business has really been waiting for is a “hard landing” of the Chinese economy, now one of the two motors of the global economy. (The other is still the United States.) Everybody thought it was bound to come eventually — well, everybody who was not too heavily invested in the Chinese market — and it now appears to be here, although the Chinese government is still denying it.

The second crisis, less widely anticipated, is a credit crunch that is sabotaging economic growth in almost all the developing countries except India. In many cases their currencies have fallen to historic lows against the dollar, making it harder for them to repay the dollars they borrowed. Moreover, it’s getting harder for them to earn dollars from their exports because commodity prices have collapsed.

And a third crisis is looming in the developed economies of Europe, North America and Japan, which can see another recession looming on the horizon before they have even fully recovered from the effects of the banking crash of 2007-2008. And it’s hard to pull out of a new recession when your interest rates are still down near zero because of the last one.

These crises are all arriving at once because they are all connected. When the huge misdeeds and mistakes of American and European banks caused the Great Recession of 2008, China avoided the low growth and high unemployment that hurt Western countries by flooding its economy with cheap credit. But that only postponed the pain, and between 2007 and 2014 total debt in China increased fourfold.

The Chinese government is more terrified of mass unemployment than anything else. It believes, probably correctly, that the Communist regime’s survival depends on delivering continuously rising living standards. So the Chinese economy went on booming for another six years, but the “solution” was fraudulent and now it’s over. 

If BRAZIL "IS" Now in the Worst Recession they have had in 30 YEARS then What the FUCK(WTF) was 2008??????????????????????

""LAB RATS"" of Planet EARTH.......................There ain't going to be anywhere YOU can HIDE to Protect YOUR ASSets.......................The Wipe OUT will be HISTORIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Brazil in recession: worst slowdown in nearly three decades(AH that would be 30 YEARS for YOU ""LIBERALS"" and Socialists Reading out there)

Brazil's economy shrank 1.9% in the second quarter, sinking into a recession that has hammered President Dilma Rousseff's popularity. The quarterly contraction, reported by government statistics agency IBGE on Friday, was bigger than what markets expected and confirms the worst slowdown for Brazil in nearly three decades.

A commodities-fueled economic boom has fizzled since Rousseff took office in 2011, and her stimulus efforts drove up public and private debt without spurring growth.

This year she reversed course, trying to cut government spending and subsidies as the central bank battles inflation. The austerity program has torn apart her governing coalition, but failed to lift business and consumer confidence from record lows.

Investment plunged 8.1% in the second quarter, its eighth straight decline. Household consumption, an economic engine during the boom years, fell 2.1%, the worst drop since 2001, due to rising unemployment, tighter credit and the highest inflation in over a decade. The economy contracted 2.6% from the second quarter last year.

Brazil which was once flush with export revenues because of Chinese demand for iron ore and soybeans, industrial surveys, consumer defaults and online retail sales all show a recession that deepened in recent months.

Brazil falls deep into recession
By Patrick Gillespie, CNN Money

New York (CNNMoney) — Brazil is going bust.

Its currency is plummeting, unemployment is rising, its stock market is down 20% from a year ago and its president, Dilma Rousseff, has an 8% approval rating — the lowest since 1992 when Brazil's president was impeached.

Once a major economic success story, Brazil sank into recession on Friday.

Its economy contracted 1.9% in the second quarter compared to the first. It was the second consecutive quarter of contraction.

"Pretty much everything is turning down," says Neil Shearing, chief emerging market economist at Capital Economics.

Compared with the same quarter last year, its economy shrank 2.6%, by far the worst performance in years, according to government statistics published Friday.

Here are the major reasons why Brazil, the second largest economy in the Western Hemisphere behind the U.S., is now in a recession:

1. Brazil's exports to China had exploded over the last decade. Now that China's economy is slowing, it needs fewer exports from Brazil.

2. Brazil's state-run oil company, Petrobras, is in a massive corruption scandal tied to many members in Rousseff's political party. The large money-laundering scandal spans across oil, business and political leaders in the country.

3. Prices for all of Brazil's key commodities — oil, sugar, coffee, metals — have tanked. Commodities are the engine behind Brazil's economy and they've lost value fast.

The recession comes as Brazilians are holding mass protests calling for Rousseff's impeachment. Although corruption isn't new in Brazil, the scale of the Petrobras corruption is large. Petrobras officials said earlier this year that the company lost $2 billion just in bribes. 

Mining company slump started in 2010 new report reveals

A haul truck is loaded by a digger with material from the pit at Rio Tinto Group's West Angelas iron ore mine in Pilbara, Australia

Investor returns in mining have been under pressure since the beginning of the decade warns consultant
By Andrew Critchlow

Mining companies entered their current slump in 2010 when the boom in commodities prices was still in full swing, far earlier than previously thought, according to research from Boston Consulting Group,

From the beginning of the decade through to 2014, the world’s top 101 mining companies delivered 18pc annual declines in total shareholder returns. The consultancy firm blames this decline on three key factors: falling commodity prices, rising costs, and investors’ loss of appetite for mining.

According to the report: “Coal companies were particularly hard hit; a rising abundance of natural gas and oil supplies depressed energy prices, including the price of coal. Slowing economic growth in China dampened demand for both metallurgical and thermal coal.”

Resources have been hard hit by a slowdown in demand growth from China, which had served as the main driver for price in a range of commodities from coal through to iron ore, copper and platinum.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks the price of 22 key raw materials, recently hit its lowest level since 1999.

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