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Tuesday, July 29, 2014

John Hussman: Yes, This Is a Bubble (And It May Be Worse Than 1929)

 

The One Rate That Is Not Only Not Going Down, But Is At A 13-Year High

 

With 77 million Americans having debt past due and the average household owing more than $15,000 in credit card debt, it appears the Fed's supposed plan to 'help Main Street' is not working so well. As the following chart from NewEdge's Brad Wishak shows, despite Fed Funds at practically zero, US credit card variable interest rates continue to rise - now at their highest since July 2001.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/one-rate-not-only-not-going-down-13-year-high 


A third of consumers with credit files had debts in collections last year
By Jonnelle Marte

About 77 million Americans have a debt in collections,  a new report finds.

That amounts to 35 percent of consumers with credit files or data reported to a major credit bureau, according to the study released Tuesday by the Urban Institute and Encore Capital Group's Consumer Credit Research Institute. "It’s a stunning number," said Caroline Ratcliffe, senior fellow at the Urban Institute and author of the report. "And it threads through nearly all communities."

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/once-again-america-you-have-proven-that.html


Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Dec 2011, Miss 2nd Month In A Row

But it was supposed to be the weather? S&P/Case-Shiller home prices dropped in May and missed expectations for the 2nd month in a row. Against a forecast rise on 0.3%, prices dropped in May by 0.3% - the biggest drop since December 2011. It appears we are going to need more Chinese hot money flow buyers.

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/case-shiller-home-prices-tumble-most.html



Our Marginal Economy
By Charles Smith
July 29, 2014

Before you buy another ticket for the Bull market bandwagon of "don't fight the Fed," perhaps you should take a look at the quality of the debt the Fed has enabled and the diminishing returns on all that debt.

The mainstream media is delighted to highlight positive economic data, but nobody ever asks about the quality of the borrowers who are behind the rosy numbers. Behind the rosy numbers, sales and profits are increasingly dependent on marginal buyers and borrowers: those buying on credit who would not qualify to borrow money in a system ruled by prudent risk-management. 

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/nyse-margin-debt-surged-in-june-leading.html


Record Student-Loan Debt Prompts Treasury Push to Stem Defaults
By Kasia Klimasinska and Janet Lorin

The U.S. Treasury, which finances more than 90 percent of new student loans, is exploring ways to make repayment more affordable as defaults by almost 7 million Americans and other strapped borrowers restrain economic growth.

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/record-student-loan-debt-prompts.html


OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's going to get REALLY Ugly over the next 18 Months Folks. The Keynesian END Game has BEGUN and NOW Comes The ""GREAT Reset""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=The+%22%22GREAT+Reset%22%22&max-results=20&by-date=true

Mr. ""HARD Money"" Ron Paul has a WARNING for YOU ALL, the Bowl of Hopium "IS" Now Empty!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Hopium&max-results=20&by-date=true 
 

Ron Paul: Stocks are in a bubble and will crash
By Alex Rosenberg
1 hour ago

Ron Paul , the former U.S. representative from Texas and perhaps America's most popular libertarian voice, has long said that the nation's monetary and fiscal policies would result in massive inflation. According to the common measures of inflation, this has not yet occurred. But Paul maintains that the inflation he has warned of has indeed come to fruition in asset prices, and that once it unravels, a market crash will ensue.

"I think there's plenty of inflation, but my definition of inflation is a little different than the rest, because I think prices going up in the different areas is a consequence of inflation," Paul said on Tuesday's " Futures Now ." "There's a lot of inflation in the stock market. I think there's a bubble there."

He says that what's occurring asset prices simply don't comport with what's happening in the economy.

"The growth isn't there. The only thing that grows is the debt, and just think about how much money they have to create value in the stock market," he said. "The unemployment is very, very bad, despite some of the optimism that is expressed with Wall Street, but that's all deception. I think you still have to see a healthy economy and people aren't complaining about structural employment, which is really insidious."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ron-paul-stocks-bubble-crash-180459868.html 


About “Recovery Summer”: Its Deja Vu All Over Again
By Michael Pento

Baseball great Yogi Berra had a saying “It’s déjà vu all over again”, and every year around this time, I am reminded of those words.  As we have once again, happened upon that magical time of year I call, recovery summer déjà vu. It’s the time of year when Wall Street and Washington apologists trot out their dog and pony narrative, in an attempt to spin the actual data, proving we have finally embarked on the summer that will launch sustainable economic growth.

And this year is no exception, as those same people appear to be downright giddy by the prospect that we finally have something to feel optimistic about.  For instance, they are euphoric about the most recent jobs report, some suggesting that there is absolutely nothing to find fault with.  Of course, they fail to mention anemic wage growth, the lower quality and part-time jobs created; or the discouraged workers who have left the work force.

Yes, they will admit that they were stunned when GDP contracted in the first quarter, but that was a mere weather-related incident.  It was the blizzard of Q1 2014 that left GDP buried under 2.9% inches of negative growth.  In truth, a more accurate reason for the economic slump was the move in the 10 year note from 2.48% on October 23rd, to 3.03% on December 31st of 2013.  And the move over 3% was the peak of the cyclical advance from the low of 1.63% on May 2nd. The doubling of interest rates, although still to a historically low level, was enough to send this debt-laden asset-bubble driven economy into the freezer. But why allow facts get in the way of a good weather story.  So once again we hear cheers for another summer recovery.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/about-recovery-summer-its-deja-vu-all-over-again/


Asset Bubbles Out of Gas

Realities and Revelations
By Michael Pento

I've written exhaustively about the real purpose behind the Fed's quantitative easing strategy. So one more time for those who still don't get it: the primary goal of QE is to bolster banks' balance sheets through the process of re-inflating equity and real estate prices. If investors look back at the history of QE they will be able to clearly see what happens when the Fed steps on the monetary gas; and also what occurs once it takes the foot off the pedal.

For example, even though interest rates were already near zero percent, the Fed felt it necessary to begin purchasing massive amounts of bank assets in late 2008 to get the money supply and stock prices moving in the positive direction. The Fed announced a $500 billion Mortgage Backed Security purchase program (QE1) on November 25th, 2008. The central bank then followed up on March 18th, 2009 with a $300 billion plan to buy long-term Treasury bonds. The total amount of $800 billion in planned QE did exactly what was intended -- the U.S. markets, not so coincidentally, ended their massive decline and then started a huge secular advance in March of that same year.

Most investors now agree that massive QE can be extremely positive for asset prices. But most on Wall Street either are not aware, or refuse to acknowledge, what occurs when the central bank stops printing. Therefore, a brief history lesson seems especially prudent at this juncture.

QE1 ended on March 31st, 2010. The market soon after headed south, and just over three months later the S&P 500 dropped by 12.6%. The second round of QE ($600 billion) ended on June 30th, 2011. This time stocks began to decline within days after the last bond was purchased, and after three months went by, investors experienced a correction of 16.7%. In both instances, a subsequent new round of QE came to the rescue of stock prices, just about when the depth of the correction extended into the double-digit range.

http://affluentinvestor.com/2014/07/asset-bubbles-gas/ 


The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=CORRECTION&max-results=20&by-date=true 


Michael Pento 

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Michael+Pento&max-results=20&by-date=true 

America "IF" you Give a SHIT about the U.S. Constitution, Believe in the Concept of the Co-Equal Branches of Government and FEAR that Obama "IS" Attempting to PULL OFF the Same SHIT Hugo Chavez DID in Venezuela by turning the Office of the Presidency into some form of Monarchy or WORSE...............A Dictatorship........................Take the 18 Minutes it will take to LISTEN to the WARNING from Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

  

Only FOX has Aired this Address by Sen. Sessions on TV...................NOT NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN. What the HELL "IS" Happening to the National Broadcasters of America??????????????????????????????????

 

Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) 7.28.2014 Obama's Executive Amnesty 

 

CONGRESS FACES 'TIME OF CHOOSING' AT 'PERILOUS HOUR'
"will not accept nullification of their laws passed by their elected representatives,"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXXJJa3nos8 


""*****ILLEGAL*****"" Immigration!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=ILLEGAL+Immigration&max-results=20&by-date=true

Al Qaeda Comes to CHINA and next time they MIGHT have GUNS instead of Knifes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Dozens killed in major terror attack in Xinjiang; China accuses ""Al Qaeda"" backed group

Beijing accuses al-Qaeda backed East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which had bases in Pakistan's tribal areas, for the unrest in the region.
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-dozens-killed-in-major-terror-attack-in-xinjiang-china-accuses-al-qaeda-backed-group-2006505



'Dozens Killed' In China Terror Attack

Knife-wielding attackers are said to have targeted a police station and government offices as "separatist militants" are blamed.

Armed paramilitary policemen run in formation during a gathering to mobilize security operations in Urumqi, Xinjiang

Dozens of people have been killed or hurt in a terrorist attack in China's Xinjiang region, according to the Xinhua news agency.

A gang armed with knives attacked a police station and government office in Elixku, Shache County.

The gang then attacked civilians and smashed vehicles in nearby town Huangdi.

The news agency, citing local police, said "dozens of Uighur and Han civilians were killed or injured" during the attack on Monday.

It added: "Police officers at the scene shot dead dozens of members of the mob.

"Initial investigation showed that it was a premeditated terror attack."

Shache, also known by its Uighur name Yarkant, is close to the border with Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

http://news.sky.com/story/1309634/dozens-killed-in-china-terror-attack 


Chinese Police Shoot Dead Dozens After Attack in Xinjiang
By Ben Blanchard

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese police shot dead dozens of knife-wielding attackers on Monday morning after they staged assaults on two towns in the western region of Xinjiang, the official Xinhua news agency said on Tuesday.

A gang armed with knives had first attacked a police station and government offices in the town of Elixku, in Shache county, it said, quoting local police. Some moved on to the nearby town of Huangdi, attacking civilians and smashing and setting fire to six vehicles.

“Police officers at the scene shot dead dozens of members of the mob,” the brief report said.

An initial investigation showed that it was an “organised and premeditated terrorist attack”, Xinhua added.

The dead and injured include not just Uighurs but members of China’s majority Han Chinese population, the report said.

The U.S.-based Rebiya Kadeer, president of the exiled World Uyghur Congress (Eds:Correct), called for restraint, saying in a statement that she was worried “China will use this incident to step up repression, causing more people to loose their freedom.”

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/chinese-police-shoot-dead-dozens-after-attack-in-xinjiang/


China Cuts Off Internet Near Kashgar Amid Reports of Deadly Violence

Chinese authorities near the Silk Road city of Kashgar have cut off Internet services to a part of Yarkand county in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region after reports of deadly violence appeared online, local residents said.

There was also a noticeable increase in police patrolling the streets of the county, one local resident said on Tuesday as the exile World Uyghur Congress called on Chinese authorities to provide details of casualties amid unconfirmed reports that 20 people had been killed.

"The Internet has been totally shut down since about 10.00 a.m. [Monday] morning," an employee who answered the phone at a guesthouse in Yarkand (in Chinese, Shache) county told RFA.

"There is a total information lockdown," the employee said, adding that the attack had taken place "in the countryside."

"It happened on [Sunday] night in a rural place called Ailixihu township."

The Internet blockage came after reports of an unconfirmed "terror" attack began to circulate online.

"There has been an incident in Kashgar," wrote one anonymous blogger on a popular social media site late on Monday. "All police leave has been canceled and all officers are being recalled to duty."
http://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/reports-07292014102851.html 



DIA Chief: Al Qaeda Ideology Rapidly Expanding

More violent terror groups replace core al Qaeda
BY: Bill Gertz

The terrorist ideology behind al Qaeda is expanding significantly—contrary to President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign theme that declared the Islamist terror threat in decline, according to the outgoing director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.

“It’s not on the run, and that ideology is actually, it’s sadly, it feels like it’s exponentially growing,” DIA Director Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn said during a security conference Saturday.

Flynn was asked about the controversy over Obama’s statements during his 2012 reelection bid that al Qaeda had been “decimated” by the U.S. war on terrorism, and that the group was “on the run” as a result.

Flynn challenged use of the term “core al Qaeda” to identify the group once led by Osama bin Laden and now headed by his deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri.

“My belief—so this is Mike Flynn—core al Qaeda is the ideology,” he said. “Al Qaeda command and control is where the senior leadership resides. So al Qaeda command and control resides today, Zawahiri, over in the [Federally Administered Tribal Areas], Pakistan.”

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/dia-chief-al-qaeda-ideology-rapidly-expanding/


Al Qaeda
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Al+Qaeda&max-results=20&by-date=true 
US Unable to Account for $626 Million Worth of Weapons in Afghanistan

The U.S. Department of Defense cannot account for 747,000 weapons and auxiliary military equipment in Afghanistan.
By Ankit Panda

The United States’ Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), in a new report, notes that “747,000 weapons  and auxiliary equipment” given to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) are unaccounted for. The United States has been training and supporting the ANSF to foster self-sufficiency in the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police. The ANSF will take over Afghanistan’s precarious internal security situation once the United States and NATO withdraw from the country at the end of this year. Weapons supplies from the U.S. to the ANSF are one of the main ways in which the United States supports the development of the ANSF. According to SIGAR, the unaccounted weapons “are valued at approximately $626 million.”

Among the unaccounted for arms are rifles, pistols, machine guns, grenade launchers, and shotguns. 465,000 of these small arms are missing according to the SIGAR report. The report additionally finds that the DoD’s ledger systems for recording weapon shipments to Afghanistan have major errors and discrepancies.

The Security Cooperation Information Portal (SCIP) and the Operational Verification of Reliable Logistics Oversight Database (OVERLORD), two systems used by the DoD to keep track of weapon shipments to Afghanistan, were found to have major errors and discrepancies. For example, 43 percent of serial numbers in the OVERLORD system had “missing information and/or duplication.”

Other serial numbers were recorded multiple times and some had no shipping or receiving dates attached to them. In 2010, the DoD was required to implement a weapons registration program for all small arms transferred to the ANSF. According to the SIGAR audit, the poor management of serial number data has seriously impaired U.S. efforts to keep track of where these weapons are ending up in Afghanistan.

http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/us-unable-to-account-for-626-million-worth-of-weapons-in-afghanistan/


Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction

Afghan National Security Forces: Actions Needed to Improve Weapons Accountability
http://www.sigar.mil/pdf/Audits/SIGAR-14-84-AR.pdf?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=*AfPak%20Daily%20Brief&utm_campaign=2014_The%20South%20Asia%20Daily 


Afghanistan.................................Obama's NEXT IRAQ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Afghanistan&max-results=20&by-date=true 
S Africa Unemployment Rate Rose to 25.5% in Q2
By Dow Jones Business News

JOHANNESBURG--South Africa's unemployment rate swelled to 25.5% in the second quarter as strikes plagued the country's slow-growing economy, according to statistics released Tuesday.

South Africa's national statistical agency said the unemployment rate increased to 25.5% from 25.2% in the first three months of this year, putting the number of officially unemployed South Africans at a record 5.2 million.

That tally doesn't include millions more discouraged job-seekers, whose inclusion economists say would push the unemployment rate well beyond 50% of the working-age population.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/s-africa-unemployment-rate-rose-to-255-in-q2-20140729-00324


BRICs.........................The Little "s" IS South Africa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=BRICs&max-results=20&by-date=true 


Russia Recession
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Russia+Recession&max-results=20&by-date=true 


Brazil Recession
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Brazil+Recession&max-results=20&by-date=true


China HARD Landing.........................Has BEGUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=China+HARD+Landing&max-results=20&by-date=true 


NOT Looking to GOOD for the BRICs and the NEW ""Center of the Financial Universe""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Danger of Too Loose, Too Long

With an improving labor market and an uptick in inflation, the danger now is to wait too long to tighten.
By Richard W. Fisher

I have grown increasingly concerned about the risks posed by current monetary policy.

First, we are experiencing financial excess that is of our own making. There is a lot of talk about “macroprudential supervision” as a way to prevent financial excess from creating financial instability. But macroprudential supervision is something of a Maginot Line: It can be circumvented. Relying upon it to prevent financial instability provides an artificial sense of confidence.

Second, I believe we are at risk of doing what the Fed has too often done: overstaying our welcome by staying too loose, too long. We did a good job in staving off the deflationary and depression risks that were present in the aftermath of the 2007–09 financial crisis. But we now risk fighting the last war.

Given the rapidly improving employment picture, developments on the inflationary front and my own background as a banker and investment and hedge fund manager, I am increasingly at odds with some of my respected colleagues at the policy table of the Federal Reserve as well as with the thinking of many notable economists. The economy is reaching the desired destination faster than we imagined.

Third, should we overstay our welcome, we risk not only doing damage to the economy but also being viewed as politically pliant.

The Fed has been running a hyper-accommodative monetary policy to lift the economy out of the doldrums and counteract a possible deflationary spiral. Much of what we have paid out to purchase Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities has been put back to the Fed in the form of excess reserves deposited at the Federal Reserve banks. As of July 9, $2.517 trillion of excess reserves were parked on the 12 Fed banks’ balance sheets, while depository institutions wait to find eager and worthy borrowers to lend to.

http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-590469/ 


Fed Delivers Warning To Investors
By Chris Ciovacco

The Federal Reserve is an interesting study in public relations. The Fed has twelve districts that release statements and publish studies. The Federal Reserve Board is comprised of seven members who often make public statements about monetary policy. The chair of the Federal Reserve Board also testifies and conducts Q&A sessions with the media. Often, statements coming from the various sources within the Fed seem to be highly contradictory and confusing, something that serves a purpose in the realm of monetary policy.

Fed Cares About Inflation Expectations

Experienced investors know central bankers care about their legacy, as most professionals do. While casual investors may believe all the Fed cares about is higher stock prices, the Fed is genuinely concerned about allowing inflation to get ahead of them. If inflation expectations begin to pick up, it can change habits, which ultimately can lead to real world inflation.

Fisher’s Shot Across The Bow

On Sunday night, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The text serves as a warning to complacent investors that the Fed cannot keep interest rates near zero indefinitely. The op-ed opens with a single sentence paragraph:

http://www.investing.com/analysis/fed-delivers-warning-to-investors-220973 


Fed up? Janet Yellen facing challenges from within
By Jeff Cox

Not quite six months into her term, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen already faces a stern test: unrest from within.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher's op-ed column in Monday's Wall Street Journal represents an unusual—though not entirely unprecedented—public calling-out of the central bank's policies and, by extension, the chair. Long considered a maverick among the Fed's 12 regional presidents, Fisher expressed concern that ultra-loose monetary policy is creating "financial excess" leading to "an artificial sense of confidence" in financial markets.

"Given the rapidly improving employment picture, developments on the inflationary front and my own background as a banker and investment and hedge fund manager, I am increasingly at odds with some of my respected colleagues at the policy table of the Federal Reserve as well as with the thinking of many notable economists," Fisher said.

His hawkish, outlier stance aside, however, the sentiments Fisher expressed are gaining traction among Fed-watchers and presenting a challenge for Yellen.

"They get more difficult for her," Carnegie Mellon Fed historian Allan Meltzer said in an interview when asked the type of conditions Yellen faces going forward.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101872368


Federal Reserve's Massive Power Grab
By Brian Wesbury, First Trust Advisors

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2014/7/28/the-feds-massive-power-grab 



FED BUBBLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=FED+BUBBLES&max-results=20&by-date=true


Consumer DEBT
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Consumer+DEBT&max-results=20&by-date=true 



Uncle Ben's ""QE"" VooDoo IS going to FAIL Everywhere it was TRIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=%22%22QE%22%22+VooDoo&max-results=20&by-date=true
Record Student-Loan Debt Prompts Treasury Push to Stem Defaults
By Kasia Klimasinska and Janet Lorin

The U.S. Treasury, which finances more than 90 percent of new student loans, is exploring ways to make repayment more affordable as defaults by almost 7 million Americans and other strapped borrowers restrain economic growth.

Leading the effort is Deputy Secretary Sarah Bloom Raskin, who became the department’s No. 2 official in March after more than three years as a Federal Reserve governor. As higher-education debt swells to a record $1.2 trillion, Raskin, 53, is alert to parallels to the mortgage crisis.

Back then, “we would see signs on telephones polls with 1-800 numbers urging homeowners to call to stop foreclosures. People generally got into more trouble when they used those services,” she said in an interview. Driving past the same telephone poles recently, she saw signs “urging people to call a 1-800 number for helping paying student loans.” 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-07-24/record-student-loan-debt-prompts-treasury-push-to-stem-defaults


A third of consumers with credit files had debts in collections last year
By Jonnelle Marte

About 77 million Americans have a debt in collections,  a new report finds.

That amounts to 35 percent of consumers with credit files or data reported to a major credit bureau, according to the study released Tuesday by the Urban Institute and Encore Capital Group's Consumer Credit Research Institute. "It’s a stunning number," said Caroline Ratcliffe, senior fellow at the Urban Institute and author of the report. "And it threads through nearly all communities."

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/once-again-america-you-have-proven-that.html 


Student LOAN DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Student+LOAN+DEBT&max-results=20&by-date=true 
Our Marginal Economy
By Charles Smith
July 29, 2014

Before you buy another ticket for the Bull market bandwagon of "don't fight the Fed," perhaps you should take a look at the quality of the debt the Fed has enabled and the diminishing returns on all that debt.

The mainstream media is delighted to highlight positive economic data, but nobody ever asks about the quality of the borrowers who are behind the rosy numbers. Behind the rosy numbers, sales and profits are increasingly dependent on marginal buyers and borrowers: those buying on credit who would not qualify to borrow money in a system ruled by prudent risk-management.

These marginal borrower/buyers are last on, first off: they qualify for loans at the end of a credit expansion, when lenders throw caution to the winds to reap the profits from issuing new mortgages, auto loans, student loans, credit cards, etc. to marginal borrowers.

These marginal borrowers are the first to default, because they have insufficient income and collateral to support their loans.

This rising dependence on marginal borrowers/buyers leads to an economy of diminishing returns: ever-rising rates of debt expansion are required to generate ever-declining rates of expansion of sales, profits, GDP, etc.

The waterfall decline of the quality of debt-based sales is masked by the rosy headline numbers. Auto sales are soaring; nice, but does anyone ask how many of those vehicles were sold to marginal buyers, the kind of borrowers who are one paycheck away from insolvency and default?  

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly14/marginal7-14.html


NYSE Margin Debt Surged in June; Leading Indicator for a Market Correction?
Junly 28, 2014
By Doug Short

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. I picked 1995 as an arbitrary start date. We were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.

Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increase. Margin debt hit an all-time high in February of this year.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php


FED BUBBLES
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=FED+BUBBLES&max-results=20&by-date=true 


An lndustral Reversal at Hand?
July 28, 2014
By Chris Kimble

The Industrial ETF XLI may have created a "Bearish Wick" on a monthly basis at its Fibonacci 161% Extension level at (1) last month. Over the past year, XLI has reflected relative strength compared to the broad market. Over the past 30 & 90 days, XLI has shown a bit of relative weakness.

The table below lists the Top Ten holdings of XLI that might be worth watching in the very near future.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-140728-Industrial-ETF-Update.php 


A third of consumers with credit files had debts in collections last year
By Jonnelle Marte

About 77 million Americans have a debt in collections,  a new report finds.

That amounts to 35 percent of consumers with credit files or data reported to a major credit bureau, according to the study released Tuesday by the Urban Institute and Encore Capital Group's Consumer Credit Research Institute. "It’s a stunning number," said Caroline Ratcliffe, senior fellow at the Urban Institute and author of the report. "And it threads through nearly all communities."

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/once-again-america-you-have-proven-that.html


The Coming CORRECTION "IS" going to be Fricking BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=CORRECTION&max-results=20&by-date=true 
PUTIN Will Respond!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=PUTIN&max-results=20&by-date=true 


EU Aims at Russian Banks, Technology in Widest Sanctions Yet
By James G. Neuger and Jonathan Stearns

The European Union curbed Russia’s access to bank financing and advanced technology in its widest-ranging sanctions yet over President Vladimir Putin’s backing of the rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

EU governments agreed today in Brussels to bar Russian state-owned banks from selling shares or bonds in Europe and restricted the export of equipment to modernize the oil industry, a key prop for Russia’s economy, two EU officials told reporters. New contracts to sell arms to Russia and the export of machinery, electronics and other civilian products with military uses will also be banned.

“The political implications of the escalation in tensions are likely to cast a further chill over relations between Russia and the West,” Citigroup Inc. (C) analysts including Eric Lee and Tina Fordham said in a note to clients before the EU decision. “Economic costs are starting to bite, but it could be a while before the economic consequences bear domestic political costs for Russia.” 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/eu-aims-at-russian-banks-technology-in-widest-sanctions-yet.html


Germany Inc. Says Time’s Finally Up for Putin After Crash
By Arne Delfs, Brian Parkin and Alessandro Speciale

Germany’s business and political leaders are lining up to support a tougher stance on Russia, giving Chancellor Angela Merkel critical backing as she pushes her European Union counterparts to expand sanctions.

Industry group chiefs and lawmakers from Merkel’s governing coalition are expressing the need for deeper measures targeting Russia’s economy following the downing of Malaysia Air (MAS) Flight 17. Public opinion has also shifted, with a majority of Germans now favoring wider actions against Russia.

“This shooting down of a plane is really a turning point,” Martin Wansleben, head of the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, said in an interview. “It’s such an outrageous act that one must give a clear response.”  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-28/germany-inc-says-time-s-finally-up-for-putin-after-crash.html


Russia SANCTIONS....................................."OH SHIT"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Russia+SANCTIONS&max-results=20&by-date=true 
Let SEE how the Fricking ""PIMPS"" of Wall Street Spins a WEAK Q2 GDP Report from America with a Possible ""Credit Event"" out of Argentina Tomorrow and another DEFAULT from America's Greek Tragedy....................Puerto Rico on FRIDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/papa-bear-gary-shilling-has-warning-for.html 


Jaded Argentines brace for looming debt default
By Eliana Raszewski and Richard Lough

(Reuters) - Factory owner Norberto Garcia was poised to launch a series of new toys this year after grafting hard for the past decade to rebuild his business following Argentina's 2001-2002 economic crash and debt default.

Instead, he's hunkering down for a possible second default this Thursday, cutting investment plans and scaling back his targets.

"We had plans to launch 11 new products. Now we are going to release just three," Garcia, 70, told Reuters inside a cavernous warehouse piled high with boxes of dolls, balls and plastic rabbits. "We would rather keep the money to support the company's structure as it is."

Rather than sink 2.8 million pesos ($342,200) into expanding production lines, he plans to cap the investment at 1.8 million pesos.

Garcia's wait-and-see attitude is typical of other businesses who anticipate a slowdown in sales in a country grappling with a surging inflation rate but are convinced any economic downturn will be moderate.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/us-argentina-debt-insight-idUSKBN0FY09U20140729 


How Argentina’s Default May Trigger $29 Billion in Claims
By Katia Porzecanski and Camila Russo

By defaulting tomorrow, Argentina may trigger bondholder claims of as much as $29 billion -- equal to all its foreign-currency reserves.

If the overdue interest on Argentina’s dollar-denominated securities due 2033 isn’t paid by July 30, provisions in bond indentures known as cross-default clauses would allow the nation’s other debt holders to also demand their money back immediately. The amount corresponds to Argentina’s debt issued in foreign currencies and governed by international laws.

Argentina now faces its second default in 13 years. U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Griesa blocked its attempt last month to transfer the $539 million in interest after the nation didn’t set aside money for holdout creditors, who won a ruling that entitled them to full repayment of obligations that Argentina repudiated in 2001. While Bank of America Corp. says there’s little incentive for those who expect a settlement between Argentina and the holdouts to demand their money back, potential claims are large enough to exhaust the country’s reserves.

“It would mean that Argentina is in default on most all of its debt and presumably everybody would be in the same boat,” Anna Gelpern, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a law professor at Georgetown University, said in a telephone interview. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/how-argentina-s-default-may-trigger-29-billion-in-claims.html


Argentina.................................""OH SHIT""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Argentina&max-results=20&by-date=true


Puerto Rico
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Puerto+Rico&max-results=20&by-date=true
Krauthammer’s Take: John Kerry’s Peace Plan ‘Would Have Given Hamas All of Its Demands’
By NRO Staff

Secretary of State John Kerry’s intervention in negotiations among Egypt, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority has caused more casualties, not preventing them, Charles Krauthammer said Monday on Special Report. His effort drew criticism from all, including criticism from a left-wing paper and the Israeli cabinet, which voted 19–0 against the plan Kerry had negotiated.

“Israeli cabinets have never voted 19–0 on whether the sun rises in the east. It was unbelievable,” Charles Krauthammer said.

Kerry returned from negotiations with parties in Paris with a proposition for Israel that “would have given Hamas all of its demands,” Krauthammer argued.

Krauthammer also noted the formation of a tacit Middle Eastern alliance among Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Palestinian Authority.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/383997/krauthammers-take-john-kerrys-peace-plan-would-have-given-hamas-all-its-demands-nro 


Inside the Kerry-Israel Meltdown
By Josh Rogin

The Secretary of State has been furiously working on a Mideast ceasefire, but his ad hoc efforts were dealt another blow Monday when Israel rejected his latest peacemaking plan.

On Monday, Secretary of State Kerry took to the podium at the State Department to say that he was working with Israel and Hamas to negotiate an extension of their temporary ceasefire.

“Today, we are continuing to work toward establishing an unconditional humanitarian ceasefire, one that…will stop the fighting, allow desperately needed food and medicine and other supplies into Gaza, and enable Israel to address…the threat posed by tunnel attacks—and to be able to do so without having to resort to combat,” Kerry said.

An hour later, the Israeli military sent a text message to all Palestinians to stay in their homes and resumed strikes inside Gaza.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/29/inside-the-kerry-israel-meltdown.html 



John Kerry’s big blunder in seeking an Israel-Gaza cease-fire
By David Ignatius

Secretary of State John Kerry has made a significant mistake in how he’s pursuing a Gaza cease-fire — and it’s not surprising that he has upset both the Israelis and some moderate Palestinians.

Kerry’s error has been to put so much emphasis on achieving a quick halt to the bloodshed that he has solidified the role of Hamas, the intractable, unpopular Islamist group that leads Gaza, along with the two hard-line Islamist nations that are its key supporters, Qatar and Turkey. In the process, he has undercut not simply the Israelis but also the Egyptians and the Fatah movement that runs the Palestinian Authority, all of which want to see an end to Hamas rule in Gaza.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-john-kerrys-big-blunder-in-seeking-an-israel-gaza-cease-fire/2014/07/28/ab3fbfd2-1686-11e4-9349-84d4a85be981_story.html



Geopolitical Risk Rises for Global Investors
By Brian Bremner and Simon Kennedy

Since the start of the year, conflicts in Syria, Gaza and Iraq have escalated, China has become more assertive in pursuing territorial claims against Japan, Thailand reverted to military rule, Russia annexed Crimea and separatists in Ukraine downed a civilian airliner.

These crises have had little lasting impact on major financial markets in the U.S., Europe and in Asia. Now Raj Hindocha, a managing director with Deutsche Bank Research in London, is warning that investors and money managers could be in for a rude awakening later this year.

Geopolitical risk is being underestimated and volatility suppressed, thanks in large part to the open monetary spigots at the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, according to a recent report Hindocha co-authored.

“It’s the abundant liquidity that has numbed the markets,” he said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Nobody wants to bet against that firepower.”

Though it’s nowhere near the levels of 2011, when the U.S. recovery sputtered and Europe was in the grip of a sovereign debt crisis, volatility is starting to make a comeback. The Chicago Board Options Volatility Index -- which rises in times of market stress -- is up 8.56 percent so far in July and poised for its biggest monthly jump since January. And the U.S. and Europe agreed yesterday to escalate their pressure on Russia with a new set of sanctions targeting the country’s financial, energy and defense sectors.

September Surprise  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/geopolitical-risk-rise-for-global-investors.html



German Bund Record Shows All Is Not Right in Euro Area
By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Anchalee Worrachate

Europe’s debt crisis is a fading memory, its most-indebted nations have never been able to borrow so cheaply and growth is returning, yet German bonds, a key gauge of economic malaise, are setting the sort of records usually reserved for times of turmoil.

Bunds have joined a rally that’s swept borrowing costs to record lows across the euro area. The last time their yields plumbed such levels was when the region was in the grip of a downturn that threatened the euro’s existence. That they’ve dropped further reflects concern that the European Central Bank’s plan to stave off deflation and boost growth can’t work without further stimulus.

“Yields are low and I suspect they will probably go lower as deflation remains a real risk given the growth and inflation outlook,” said Robin Marshall, director of fixed-income at Smith & Williamson Investment in London. “There is a strong perception in the market that the ECB will have to ease policy further.” Smith & Williamson manage the equivalent of $25 billion in assets.

At first glance, ECB President Mario Draghi’s efforts to save the region appear to have worked. His pledge at the height of the crisis in July 2012 to safeguard the euro with measures that may include the purchase of member nations’ bonds helped steer yields such as Spain’s to the lowest on record from the highest in the euro area. The caveat is that success hasn’t translated into faster consumer prices or jobs growth, prompting Draghi to delve further into his stimulus toolkit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/german-bund-yield-falls-to-record-surpassing-euro-crisis-levels.html 


Hey Bloomberg........................EUROPE "IS" Totally SCREWED for the RESET of this Fricking DECADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=EUROPE&max-results=20&by-date=true 


""PIIGS"" are STILL ""PIIGS""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=%22%22PIIGS%22%22+are+STILL+%22%22PIIGS%22%22&max-results=20&by-date=true 



Banco Espirito Santo Plunges: Shareholder Meeting Cancelled Due To "Unexpected Facts"

 

With all other operating holdcos having already declared bankruptcy, the anxiety over Banco Espirito Santo is growing (despite DE Shaw and Goldman Sachs recommending investors buy the shares). Despite Bank of Portugal reassurance last night that "BES is able to raise capital), the stock is plunging on news of "unexpected facts" this morning...

  • *BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO SAYS SHAREHOLDER MEETING WAS CANCELLED DUE TO "UNEXPECTED FACTS''
  • *BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO FALLS MORE THAN 13% IN LISBON TRADING
Remember, this is systemic (as the Portugues President has warned), and the contagion is potentially global... not "contained."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/banco-espirito-santo-plunges-shareholder-meeting-cancelled-due-unexpected-facts 



People of Planet EARTH.....................Are you SEEING a Fricking PATTERN HERE....................YET??????????????????????????
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/ 



For 6 YEARS Your ASSHOLES YOU Elected to RUN ""BIG Government"" ALL Around the WORLD have BEEN Lying to YOU and NOW their Fricking LIES has the Planet Facing the Likelihood of a THIRD World WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=GLOBAL+War&max-results=20&by-date=true 



BUT Before WWIII gets Started Our Wizards of Smart who are Running ""BIG Government"" have set the Stage for the Biggest Financial Collapse in Human History. 

Before the END of this DECADE WE are going to SEE the Greatest RESET in Asset Pricing that's going to make 2008 look like it was nothing more than a ""BAD Weekend in Vegas""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=BAD+Weekend+in+Vegas&max-results=20&by-date=true



And IF you STILL Think I'm Crazy in my THINKING Listen to how Kyle Bass Connects the DOTs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Kyle+Bass+You+Know+how+this+ALL+Ends,+RIGHT?+It+Ends+in+WAR&max-results=20&by-date=true 



5 Minutes into this Presentation Kyle Bass Warns.....................""You Know how this ALL Ends, RIGHT? It Ends in WAR""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oct. 1, 2012 | Day 1 | AmerCatalyst 2012 | The Engtanglement : Session 1.2 | The World is Not Enough: Keynote presentation by J. Kyle Bass

In his fourth appearance at AmeriCatalyst, J. Kyle Bass, founder and principle of Hayman Capital Management, takes the stage with a compelling keynote address offering candid views on the state of crippled sovereigns and the global economy, the state of the U.S. economy and sovereign debt, the bottom of the U.S. housing market, and his favored investment opportunities today.

He is introduced on stage very quickly by AmeriCatalyst founder and CEO Toni Moss, the host of the show and architect of its program.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY 




Now I know this "IS" some Pretty Strong STUFF here, but IF you Doubt the Clowns running ""BIG Government"" today have the Skill Sets to make this WORK, then DO a Friend a Favor and TELL THEM what You are Reading here where ""The REAL News MATTERS""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Now I have some STUFF for You Readers form China TOOOOOOOOOOOOO..............Like the Folks Running CHINA are LYING their Fricking ASSES OFF about China's GDP Growth!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The BIGGEST ""FRAUD"" on Planet Earth IS the Chinese Economy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=The+BIGGEST+%22%22FRAUD%22%22+on+Planet+Earth+IS+the+Chinese+Economy


China Economy Suspected of Fabrication

Chinese economy has been highly questioned. A business research group recently reported the huge discrepancy between the Communist regime’s data and the reality according to actual volatility and real growth.


Chinese economy has been highly questioned. A business research group recently reported the huge discrepancy between the Communist regime’s data and the reality according to actual volatility
and real growth.

Harry Wu, Professor of Economics, revealed in his recent report at Conference Board that China's economy could be 36% smaller than what Beijing claims.

"Examining changes over time, our new results show greater volatility and slower growth than the official estimates," Professor Wu wrote.

Last year, Professor Frank Xie also stated in his book entitled, “The Dragon’s Vault” that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) essentially single-handedly manipulates the numbers and prosperity in China.

Professor Xie, School of Business, University of South Carolina Aiken: "The Chinese economist Harry Wu believes that China's economy is one third less than the official data. This data is very interesting. In fact, we can see more economists, both at home and abroad, dare to stand up and tell the truth. The consensus of all these independent economists is that China’s economy is problematic, deviated and even artificially fraudulent."  

http://www.ntd.tv/en/programs/news-politics/china-forbidden-news/20140729/180317--china-economy-suspected-of-fabrication.html


China Trade Numbers Still Don’t Add Up Post-Fake Exports
By Bloomberg News

China’s trade numbers still don’t add up.

A discrepancy between Hong Kong and Chinese figures for bilateral trade remains even after a crackdown last year on Chinese companies’ use of fake export-invoicing to evade limits on importing foreign currency. China recorded $1.31 of exports to Hong Kong in June for every $1 in imports Hong Kong tallied from China, for a $6.4 billion difference, based on government data compiled by Bloomberg News.

Analysts offered at least three possible explanations for the gap, including differences in how China and Hong Kong record trade in goods that pass through the city, as well as a persistence in fraud at a lower level. Any discrepancies make it tougher to gauge the impact of global demand on a Chinese economy that’s projected for the slowest growth in 24 years.

“It’s still a bit of a mystery,” said Stephen Green, head of Greater China research at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. Regarding fraudulent invoices, “the fact that the ratio is like that would suggest that some of that is still going on,” he said.

Distortions in China’s trade data have abated since the State Administration of Foreign Exchange started a campaign in May 2013 to curb money flows disguised as trade payments.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-28/china-trade-numbers-still-don-t-add-up-post-fake-exports.html


Chinese coal inventories rise and losses widen - NDRC

According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, Chinese coal producers faced greater inventories in the first half of the year as an economic slowdown and lingering oversupply continued to weigh down the sector.

The NDRC in a statement said that by the end of June, Chinese coal producers had 99 million tonnes of unsold coal, while the country's key thermal power plants, the primary consumer of coal, had 79.06 million tonnes of coal inventories able to meet demand for 23 days.

Mr Wang Xianzheng president of China National Coal Association said that the industry's situation could worsen due to a lingering oversupply in the current economic slowdown.

A CNCA investigation across the country showed more than 70% of the country's coal enterprises are operating at a loss and workers at over half of China's coal producers have had wage cuts or defaults.

http://coal.steelguru.com/china/16864/chinese_coal_inventories_rise_and_losses_widen_ndrc 


China’s Banks Pose World’s Largest Systemic Risk
By Wayne Arnold

The cost of propping up China’s banks in the event of a financial crisis have nearly quadrupled in the past three years to $526.2 billion, the largest of any banking system, according to the latest analysis by the Volatility Laboratory at New York University’s Stern School of Business .

The V-lab uses data from publicly-listed banks to estimate how much additional capital would be needed to keep them solvent if stocks fell by at least 40% in six months. The exact methodology is explained in this research paper. It’s heavy going, but suffice to say it uses the banks’ balance sheets and stock prices to mimic the kind of stress tests central banks use to determine whether banks have enough capital to withstand financial storms on the same scale as the global financial crisis in 2008.

China’s banks, if the V-Lab’s calculations are any indication, do not. Beijing’s efforts to revive growth since March have succeeded in nudging GDP growth back up to 7.5% in the second quarter from 7.4% in the first three months of 2014 . Government spending rose a quarter in June from a year earlier, according to the finance ministry. But the so-called mini-stimulus has also renewed a boom in domestic credit, with loan growth climbing 25% in June from the year before to 1.08 trillion yuan ($174.2 billion).

V-Lab doesn’t explain why the costs are rising, but the increase is in line with the explosion in bank lending in recent years. With the economy slowing and the risk of defaults rising, investors have pushed banks’ stock prices to record low levels relative to the book value of the banks’ loans. Bank of China, for example, trades at less than its book value.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/07/29/chinas-banks-pose-worlds-largest-systemic-risk/ 


China HARD Landing......................Has Begun!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=China+HARD+Landing&max-results=20&by-date=true 


China SHADOW Banking..........................BANKING Crisis II Coming at YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=China+SHADOW+Banking&max-results=20&by-date=true


China CREDIT Crisis
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=China+CREDIT+Crisis&max-results=20&by-date=true 


China Coal Trusts
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=China+Coal+Trusts


FIRST Comes the ""GROWTH Recession"" THEN the MOTHER of ALL ""GLOBAL Recessions""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=GROWTH+Recession&max-results=20&by-date=true 
Now for YOU Readers from Japan. YOU Folks have been TURNED into Keynesian LAB Rats who are about to be Royally SCREWED by ABENOMICS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NO Way does ""BIG Government"" in Japan and the BoJ make the MATH Work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


BOJ Ishida Cautious Over Consumption and Exports
By Dow Jones Business News

SHIMONOSEKI, Japan--A member of the Bank of Japan policy board on Tuesday sounded a slightly cautious note on the nation's economy as consumption has yet to clearly pick up amid the hangover from the April's sales tax increase and stagnant exports.

"A major focus is on whether consumption will return to an upward trend in the July-September period as anticipated," Koji Ishida said at a meeting with business executives in the city of Shimonoseki, western Japan.

Nearly four months after the increase in the sales tax, the economy has no clear signs of exiting from the doldrums as consumers remain wary of spending on big-ticket items such as cars and houses.

Data released by the government on Tuesday showed household spending was down 3.0% in June from a year earlier. Retail sales also edged down 0.6% from the previous year.

While Mr. Ishida said the adverse impact of the higher levy on consumption is expected to gradually wear off, he added that a rise in expectations that incomes will grow further as "crucial above all else" for keeping personal spending solid.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/boj-ishida-cautious-over-consumption-and-exports-20140729-00005 


Japan Retail Sales Fall 0.6% On Year In June

TOKYO (Alliance News) - Retail sales in Japan lost 0.6% on year in June, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Tuesday - worth 11.351 trillion yen.

That missed forecasts for a decline of 0.5% following the 0.4% drop in May.

Sales from large retailers tumbled 1.8% on year to 1.632 trillion yen - also shy of expectations for a fall of 1.7% after losing 1.2% in the previous month.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales dipped 0.4% - missing forecasts for a fall of 0.8% following the 4.6% plunge in May.

Wholesale sales were down 0.7% on year to 26.698 trillion yen in June, the data showed, after tumbling 1.3% in the previous month.

Commercial sales also dipped an annual 0.7% to 38.050 trillion yen after losing 1.0% on year a month earlier.

Also on Tuesday:

. The average of household spending in Japan was down 3.0% on year in June, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said - standing at 272,791 yen.

That beat forecasts for a decline of 3.9% following the 8.0% annual contraction in May.

The average of monthly income per household stood at 710,375 yen, down 6.6% on year.

The average of consumption expenditures per household was 295,738 yen, down 4.5% on year.

http://www.lse.co.uk/AllNews.asp?code=hzy6npt1&headline=Japan_Retail_Sales_Fall_06_On_Year_In_June 



Japan’s Retail Sales Drop in Challenge to Abe Reflation
By Masaaki Iwamoto

Japan’s retail sales fell more than forecast in June, capping a weak quarter that challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to reflate the economy while heaping a heavier tax burden on consumers.

Sales dropped 0.6 percent from a year earlier, the trade ministry said in Tokyo today, steeper than a median forecast for a 0.5 percent decline in a Bloomberg News survey. In the second quarter, sales slumped 7 percent from the previous three months.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is counting on consumers to bear a higher sales levy even as the Bank of Japan drives the cost of living upward with record monetary easing. The risk is that spending fails to regain vigor, sapping strength from an economy lacking support from exports.

“The government and the BOJ say the economy is recovering from the slowdown after the sales-tax increase, but it’s too early to tell,” said Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “There’s a chance consumption will remain below year-earlier levels in the July-September quarter.”

Abe’s effort to stoke a sustained recovery in domestic demand is running up against a failure of companies to pass along record cash holdings in the form of higher wages that could help households cope with rising prices and the heavier tax burden.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/japan-s-retail-sales-drop-more-than-forecast-in-abe-challenge.html



Japanese Unemployment Jumps To Worst In 2014 As Household Spending & Retail Sales Drop For 3rd Month

 

Against an forecast drop to 3.5% joblessness, Japan's unemployment rate missed expectations by the most in 10 months and surged to 3.7% (its highest since Dec 2013). That likely explains why household spending and retail sales both dropped for the 3rd month in a row... (and why Abe's approval rating just broke back under 50%).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-28/japanese-unemployment-jumps-worst-2014-household-spending-drops-3rd-month 

 

Kyle Bass Japan..........................Abenomics "IS" going to FAIL and With America Bring upon the Global Economy a Recession that will make the 1930s look like it was a GOOD Time to Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Kyle+Bass+Japan&max-results=20&by-date=true 

What happens when investors pullback form the housing market? Cash sales volume down 21 percent in California year-over-year. Sales volume remains incredibly low as inventory builds up.
By Dr. HousingBubble

Big investors have been a critical component to the housing market going back to 2008. Over the last few years, we have seen the smalltime ragtag mom and pop investor creep back into the market trying to make money on flips. Of course as the deals run thin and appreciation slows down as it has, it becomes more difficult to turn a profit. It seems like big money investors have already received the memo and have started pulling away from the housing market. As expected, this has put a wet blanket on the mania from 2013 where bidding wars were common and begging sellers for mercy was typical. Inventory has picked up, bidding wars have started to wane, and sales volume remains incredibly low. This is a big point to focus on. Lending standards at the moment are fair and look at actual household incomes. This is good. However, given the housing lust nature of California buyers and sellers, why is sales volume so anemic? Take a trip to your local bank and they’ll throw money at you. Even ARM usage is picking up to stretch your budget. Of course sales volume is low because locals do not have the cash or income to support current home prices without the giant support of uncle cash buyer. Of course you have areas were foreign money flows in but this money is not blind and unlimited. If it were, don’t you think sales volume would be off the charts for the state? Inventory is there. What is happening is big investors overall are pulling back and this does have an impact on the housing market.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/cash-sales-california-inventory-rising-sales-volume-low-cash-investor-buying/ 


Lack of Defaults/Foreclosures/Short Sales; A Serious Housing & Spending Headwind
By Mark Hanson
July 28, 2014

Most think of the effects of foreclosures & short sales (distressed) only in the first derivative…that they are bad for housing and prices.  As such, bullish leaning headlines of plunging defaults, foreclosures and short sales over the past two years are everywhere, often.

Some analysts actually follow and publish the data weekly presenting them as further irrefutable evidence of a real “recovery”.   But, of course, when it comes to new-era housing what instinctively sounds like a positive, or negative, is more often than not the exact opposite.   And what’s ironic is that the lagging default, foreclosure, and short sale data they publish in the bullish context is actually leading indicating data of a bearish trend-reversal in housing happening right now, which will lead to the third stimulus “hangover” in the past seven years.

So, the next time you see the headline “Mortgage Defaults (or Foreclosures) at a 6-year Low!!!” you might want to say to yourself “humm, that’s a real problem for purchase demand, house prices, construction labor, materials, appliance sales” and so on.

Bottom line: When it comes to defaults, foreclosures and short sales and how they really fit into the macro housing and economic mosaic, “less is bad”.  Foreclosures and short sales “were” a significant housing and macro economic tailwind that drove transactions, prices, home improvement retail, labor, materials, and durable goods sales, which now — down 75% since 2012 — have turned into a stiff headwind.

http://mhanson.com/archives/1612 


Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Dec 2011, Miss 2nd Month In A Row

But it was supposed to be the weather? S&P/Case-Shiller home prices dropped in May and missed expectations for the 2nd month in a row. Against a forecast rise on 0.3%, prices dropped in May by 0.3% - the biggest drop since December 2011. It appears we are going to need more Chinese hot money flow buyers. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/case-shiller-home-prices-tumble-most-dec-2011-miss-2nd-month-row


Pending Home Sales Tumble From Recovery Highs, Biggest Miss In 2014

 

Following last week's collapse in new home sales (and last month's massive beat and surge in pending home sales), it was likely not a total surprise that pending home sales would slow, but the -1.1% MoM print is the worst in 2014 (and the biggest miss in 2014). The median existing home price continues to rise (up 4.3% year-over-year) but this is the slowest rate of gain since March 2012. NAR is quick with the excuses and this time.. no weather is to blame.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-28/pending-home-sales-tumble-recovery-highs-biggest-miss-2014 


What San Francisco Housing Reveals About The Fourth Global Liquidity Bubble

 

A month ago, when we reported on the signal America's "most important housing market" is sending we said the following:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/what-san-francisco-housing-reveals-about-fourth-global-liquidity-bubble 


U.S. Housing........................Now Comes the CORRECTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=U.S.+Housing&max-results=20&by-date=true



A third of consumers with credit files had debts in collections last year
By Jonnelle Marte

About 77 million Americans have a debt in collections,  a new report finds.

That amounts to 35 percent of consumers with credit files or data reported to a major credit bureau, according to the study released Tuesday by the Urban Institute and Encore Capital Group's Consumer Credit Research Institute. "It’s a stunning number," said Caroline Ratcliffe, senior fellow at the Urban Institute and author of the report. "And it threads through nearly all communities."

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/2014/07/once-again-america-you-have-proven-that.html 
Once Again America, You have Proven that YOU are Dumber than a Fricking ""BOX of ROCKS"" when it comes to CREDIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

So Some 77 Million of YOU enjoyed the Fricking PAIN that 2007 Brought YOU well GOOD............................America WILL Get to enjoy another Try at ""DEPRESSION"" and Take the REST of Planet Earth With US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 


Here "IS" a Refresher on How Economies WORK................................And you don't even have to READ just Fricking WATCH and LISTEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Ray Dalio explains 'How the Economic Machine Works'

http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Ray+Dalio&max-results=20&by-date=true


How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0


2008..................................AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=2008&max-results=20&by-date=true  


""*****DEBT Ain't INCOME*****""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=DEBT+Ain%27t+INCOME&max-results=20&by-date=true 


Delinquent Debt in America

By CAROLINE RATCLIFFE' SIGNE-MARY MCKERNAN, BRETT THEODOS, AND EMMA KALISH
URBAN INSTITUTE

JOHN CHALEKIAN, PEIFANG GUO, AND CHRISTOPHER TREPEL
CONSUMER CREDIT RESEARCH INSTITUTE, ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP

AN OPPORTUNITY AND OWNERSHIP INITIATIVE BRIEF
July 2014

http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/413191-Delinquent-Debt-in-America.pdf 


A third of consumers with credit files had debts in collections last year
By Jonnelle Marte

About 77 million Americans have a debt in collections,  a new report finds.

That amounts to 35 percent of consumers with credit files or data reported to a major credit bureau, according to the study released Tuesday by the Urban Institute and Encore Capital Group's Consumer Credit Research Institute. "It’s a stunning number," said Caroline Ratcliffe, senior fellow at the Urban Institute and author of the report. "And it threads through nearly all communities."

The report analyzed 2013 credit data from TransUnion to calculate how many Americans were falling behind on their bills. It looked at how many people had non-mortgage bills, such as credit card bills, child support payments and medical bills, that are so past due that the account has since been closed and placed in collections.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/07/29/a-third-of-consumers-had-debts-in-collections-last-year/ 


Study: 35 percent in US facing debt collectors
By JOSH BOAK

WASHINGTON (AP) — More than 35 percent of Americans have debts and unpaid bills that have been reported to collection agencies, according to a study released Tuesday by the Urban Institute.

These consumers fall behind on credit cards or hospital bills. Their mortgages, auto loans or student debt pile up, unpaid. Even past-due gym membership fees or cellphone contracts can end up with a collection agency, potentially hurting credit scores and job prospects, said Caroline Ratcliffe, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank.

"Roughly, every third person you pass on the street is going to have debt in collections," Ratcliffe said. "It can tip employers' hiring decisions, or whether or not you get that apartment."

The study found that 35.1 percent of people with credit records had been reported to collections for debt that averaged $5,178, based on September 2013 records. The study points to a disturbing trend: The share of Americans in collections has remained relatively constant, even as the country as a whole has whittled down the size of its credit card debt since the official end of the Great Recession in the middle of 2009.

http://news.yahoo.com/study-35-percent-us-facing-debt-collectors-041239356.html


Student Loan Debt
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Student+Loan+Debt&max-results=20&by-date=true 



Consumer Debt
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Consumer+Debt


Retail Sales
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=Retail+Sales&max-results=20&by-date=true 



FIRST Comes the ""GROWTH Recession"" THEN the MOTHER of ALL ""GLOBAL Recessions""!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.therealnewsmatters.com/search?q=GROWTH+Recession&max-results=20&by-date=true